Forecast: Aliyev will return Armenian prisoners only under  international pressure

ArmInfo.Only a powerful, coordinated international pressure can force Ilham Aliyev to return the Armenian prisoners. It is more than obvious that only fear for  his own rating can encourage him to take this step. Ara Papyan, head  of the Modus Vivendi analytical center, expressed such  opinion to  ArmInfo.

After the signing of the trilateral statement on the ceasefire in the  Karabakh conflict zone on November 9, Azerbaijan, violating these  agreements, captured more than 60 Armenian servicemen. And despite  Armenia's strict compliance with all the points of the November 9  statement, Baku refuses to fulfill its part and return all the  Armenian prisoners.

During the entire post-war period, there were only a few cases of  prisoner exchanges, in which about 70 military and civilian persons  returned to Armenia. Moreover, some of which were actually bought by  their relatives. According to human rights activists, there are still  up to 300 Armenians in Azerbaijani captivity, which Baku stubbornly  denies.

And as long as there is no such pressure, Aliyev, according to the  analyst, will continue to try to extract as many concessions from  Armenia as possible by manipulating the topic of prisoners. According  to Papyan, in Aliyev's view, this state of affairs leads to an  increase in domestic pressure on Prime Minister Pashinyan. As a  result, according to Baku's calculations, it can show greater  compliance in response to the demands of Aliyev, who is seeking to  get corridors through Meghri and even Goris.

"It is important to note here that the Armenian prisoners are a  mechanism in the hands of Aliyev, a lever of pressure not only on  Armenia. Aliyev is also actively using this lever to put pressure on  Russia. Thus, he also compromises Moscow, the image of the Russian  president, who also signed the trilateral statement of November 9.   Moreover, it is Russia that is the guarantor of the implementation of  all the points of this document without exception. One of them, let  me remind you, is the return of all prisoners without exception, " he  stressed.

In this light, Papyan considers it necessary for the Armenian  leadership to address the issue of prisoners of war to various  international organizations, authorities and countries as soon as  possible. Noting that many reputable international organizations have  not yet expressed a position on this issue, the analyst stressed the  need for consistent work of Yerevan in this direction in the  international arena.