ArmInfo. By the example of the aggravation of the situation in the south-east of Ukraine, we can clearly see the impact of last year's war over Karabakh on the leaders in Kiev. A similar opinion was expressed by Sergey Markedonov, a leading researcher at the Center for Euro-Atlantic Security at the MGIMO Institute for International Studies, and editor-in-chief of the journal "International Analytics".
"It is clear that the unfreezing of the conflict, the scrapping of the Karabakh status quo creates a temptation for many in Ukraine in favor of tougher actions. However, even in the absence of an escalation even remotely reminiscent of last year, Moscow has once again voiced its readiness to respond to a possible violation of the "red lines"by Kiev. So in this case, the consequences may be completely different, " he said.
Meanwhile, unlike the situation around the Donbass, in the situation around Karabakh, Moscow has never voiced its readiness to support one of the parties to the conflict. In last year's confrontation, Russia, according to Markedonov, was limited to the role of a balancer between Turkey, Azerbaijan and Armenia. In addition, he considers it necessary to add a huge difference in weight between Armenia and Russia as the patron states of de facto entities.
In this light, there are many differences between the Karabakh and Ukrainian stories, according to Markedonov. But there is also one thing in common - they are united by Turkey. And even more precisely, Ankara's desire to increase its own influence in both conflict regions. The only difference is that while Turkey did it in Karabakh by demonstrating its own military and diplomatic power, in the case of Ukraine, Ankara has so far shown itself by sharply intensifying military-technical cooperation with Kiev.
Another direction of Turkish activity in the Ukrainian direction, the analyst considers the increase in political cooperation between Ankara and Kiev. In this light, he recalled that with the election of Vladimir Zelensky as head of state, he met with Erdogan as many as four times. And almost all mutual visits were accompanied by the signing of framework agreements and memoranda on the development of the military-technical cooperation. And on the example of the appearance of new Turkish "bayraktars" in the Armed Forces of Ukraine, we can also talk about the practical implementation of these documents and agreements. "So Ukraine has been talking about another strengthening of Turkey in the post-Soviet space for the last few months. And here it is extremely important to note the European vector of this strengthening, since earlier Ankara preferred to strengthen its influence in the Asian, Caspian direction of the post-Soviet space. On the example of Ukraine and through interference in the affairs of Ukraine, we see an attempt by Turkey to enter not only the European part of the post-Soviet space, but also Europe and European politics in general. And it is important to state and fix it, " Markedonov concluded.