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 Wednesday, April 14 2021 11:22
David Stepanyan

Forecast: Russia`s desire to snatch something from the Turkish game  will not end well

Forecast: Russia`s desire to snatch something from the Turkish game  will not end well

ArmInfo. The constant nature of changes in international relations, Erdogan's Turkey, in order to protect its interests, is doomed to act from a position of strength.   This gives Ankara the opportunity to decide on its own-in what  scenario, in what suit and in what sign to display its "joker".

Ruben Mehrabyan, an expert at the Armenian Institute of International  Relations and Security, expressed a similar opinion to ArmInfo.

"Today we see how Erdogan raises the stakes in this game. Somewhere  he wins, somewhere he loses. But in the meantime, he manages to keep  the overall balance, primarily due to the excellent awareness of the  weaknesses, fears, vanity, stupidity and greed of his partners in  this game. And, accordingly, to continue an active foreign policy in  all directions, while remaining the vanguard of the "authoritarian  international", a loyal ally of the democratic West, a beloved friend  of Russia ,the "father of all Turks" and the "defender of all Muslims  number one" in the world, " he said.

In the same situation around, faced with the threat of a military  invasion of Ukraine, except for the United States and individual  allies in Central Europe, the united Europe does not show much desire  to support Kiev, according to the expert. But Erdogan immediately  appears with his clear position on Ukraine, rhetorically almost as  good as Washington, and here. Moreover, it appears immediately after  a telephone conversation with Putin, stating that military  cooperation with Ukraine is not directed against third countries.

However, in reality, the situation, according to Mehrabyan, is not so  stable. Accordingly, Erdogan cannot continue to revel in the inertia  of his tactical successes indefinitely. Not only because of political  regularities, but also because of many of its own problems, one of  which is the fall of the Turkish lira, which limits many of its  foreign policy initiatives. According to the expert, against this  background, Erdogan's tricks with Putin, the supply of S-400  complexes are already turning into an insurmountable obstacle to  Ankara's efforts to prevent US sanctions.

And in this international situation around Turkey, Yerevan, according  to Mehrabyan, needs to avoid a situation in which Washington will put  Erdogan in his place exclusively through the "Armenian baton".   According to the expert, Turkey is too important for the United  States, so Washington's assessment of the Armenian issues as just a  tribute to the political situation is clearly not in the interests of  Armenia.  Against this background, according to the expert, Yerevan  is finally beginning to realize Moscow's "inability" to resolve the  issue of Armenian prisoners in Azerbaijan, as long as Armenia does  not address this issue to other addresses. Mehrabyan considers the  latest article of the Armenian Ambassador to the United States  Varuzhan Nersesyan as evidence of this understanding, in which he  directly called on Washington to intervene in the issue of Armenian  prisoners.

"Moscow is extremely nervous when it sees that everyone in Yerevan  sees and understands everything. And that like yesterday, tomorrow  may not work. And if Armenia is going to somehow force its interests  to be taken into account, it is necessary to demonstrate that the  policy of Yerevan is determined in Yerevan, and not in Moscow. First  of all, based on the fact that Russia's irrepressible desire to  snatch at least something from Turkish poker with marked cards, even  rat the expense of its own interests, is unable to end with something  good a priori, " the expert concluded.


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