Forecast: On June 20, not only "My Step", but also Robert Kocharyan  will be in the parliament

ArmInfo. To date, it is not possible to predict a repeat of Nikol Pashinyan's convincing victory in the December 2018 elections on June 20, 2021. Such opinion was  expressed by Sergey Markedonov, a leading researcher at the Institute  of International Studies   of   Moscow State University of  International Relations  (MGIMO) under  the Ministry of Foreign  Affairs of Russia, editor-in-chief of the journal "International  Analytics".

"In my opinion, most likely, the new parliament will also be filled  with new forces. And along with the "My Step" bloc, it seems that  there will also be a political force headed by ex-President Robert  Kocharian. The prospect of forming a new government to the  accompaniment of street protests, to which Armenia is no stranger, is  not excluded. And here it is important to note the ability of the  Armenian political elite to stop internal political conflicts at the  stage of their development into civil confrontations, " he stressed.   At the same time, in any case, according to Markedonov's forecasts,  whoever comes to power in Armenia, this someone will solve today's  challenges and unravel the most complex foreign policy puzzles with  an extremely narrow space for maneuver. Nevertheless, even against  this background, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan announced  his resignation in order to hold early elections. And even though he  was defeated in the war, he hopes to win them.

And, according to the analyst, at this stage, the weakness of the  Armenian opposition leaves the Armenian Prime Minister with a similar  chance. In this light, Markedonov recalled the mass protests that  swept Armenia after Pashinyan signed the joint statement on the  armistice in Nagorno-Karabakh on November 10, 2020, demanding his  immediate resignation. And it seemed that the prime minister would  not sit in his chair for several days. However, Pashinyan was able  not only to sit in his chair, but also to counterattack effectively,  returning to the streets in order to mobilize his supporters.

"The fact that Pashinyan, despite the obvious decline in popularity,  is still the number one politician in Armenia, among other things, is  demonstrated by the latest opinion polls. And the point here is not  so much the prime minister's personality, but the inability of his  opponents to present an adequate program of actions for today,  especially for the future, to the Armenian voters. Another factor is  that the Armenian voter has accumulated his own accounts with the  "former" ones. And here it is appropriate to recall that the same  General Staff of the Armed Forces or the President of Armenia,  demanding the resignation of Pashinyan, did not offer to support the  "17". And this is also an important indicator of the current and  future domestic political impulses in Armenia, " Markedonov  concluded.