ArmInfo. To date, it is not possible to predict a repeat of Nikol Pashinyan's convincing victory in the December 2018 elections on June 20, 2021. Such opinion was expressed by Sergey Markedonov, a leading researcher at the Institute of International Studies of Moscow State University of International Relations (MGIMO) under the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia, editor-in-chief of the journal "International Analytics".
"In my opinion, most likely, the new parliament will also be filled with new forces. And along with the "My Step" bloc, it seems that there will also be a political force headed by ex-President Robert Kocharian. The prospect of forming a new government to the accompaniment of street protests, to which Armenia is no stranger, is not excluded. And here it is important to note the ability of the Armenian political elite to stop internal political conflicts at the stage of their development into civil confrontations, " he stressed. At the same time, in any case, according to Markedonov's forecasts, whoever comes to power in Armenia, this someone will solve today's challenges and unravel the most complex foreign policy puzzles with an extremely narrow space for maneuver. Nevertheless, even against this background, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan announced his resignation in order to hold early elections. And even though he was defeated in the war, he hopes to win them.
And, according to the analyst, at this stage, the weakness of the Armenian opposition leaves the Armenian Prime Minister with a similar chance. In this light, Markedonov recalled the mass protests that swept Armenia after Pashinyan signed the joint statement on the armistice in Nagorno-Karabakh on November 10, 2020, demanding his immediate resignation. And it seemed that the prime minister would not sit in his chair for several days. However, Pashinyan was able not only to sit in his chair, but also to counterattack effectively, returning to the streets in order to mobilize his supporters.
"The fact that Pashinyan, despite the obvious decline in popularity, is still the number one politician in Armenia, among other things, is demonstrated by the latest opinion polls. And the point here is not so much the prime minister's personality, but the inability of his opponents to present an adequate program of actions for today, especially for the future, to the Armenian voters. Another factor is that the Armenian voter has accumulated his own accounts with the "former" ones. And here it is appropriate to recall that the same General Staff of the Armed Forces or the President of Armenia, demanding the resignation of Pashinyan, did not offer to support the "17". And this is also an important indicator of the current and future domestic political impulses in Armenia, " Markedonov concluded.