ArmInfo. As a result of the second Karabakh war in the South Caucasus, there was a strengthening of both Russia and Turkey, and, in fact, Iran. A similar opinion was expressed to ArmInfo by Sergei Markedonov, a leading researcher at the Institute for International Studies of the Moscow State Institute of International Relations of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, editor- in-chief of the International Analytics magazine.
"At the same time, all this does not mean the final exhaustion of the Minsk Group format in the settlement of the Karabakh conflict. And also, from now on, the Armenian-Azerbaijani confrontation will be resolved exclusively by Russia, Turkey and Iran. It is obvious that a radical breakdown of the previous status quo does not mean political - legal resolution of the conflict. The unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic with its government institutions is still a reality, albeit a truncated one. This means that diplomats still have a lot of work to do, "he stressed.
In this light, the analyst drew attention to the telephone conversations between the presidents of Russia and France, Putin and Macron, on the eve of the Moscow Putin-Pashinyan-Aliyev summit on January 11. Moreover, against the background of a general "freeze" in Moscow's relations with the European Union, such negotiations, "taking into account the co-chairmanship of Russia and France in the OSCE Minsk Group," took place more than once.
The inauguration of Joe Biden, according to Markedonov's forecasts, makes the return of the States to the region more than likely. Especially in light of American concern about the strengthening of the South Caucasian positions of Russia, Turkey and Iran. Moreover, to all this concern is added, albeit difficult to achieve, the prospect of forming a stable alliance between Turkey and Russia.
All this, according to the analyst, prompts Moscow to follow the usual path of evading revisionism. According to Markedonov's forecasts, Moscow will start "revising" something only if someone has already had a solid hand in it. As was the case in the 2000s in Georgia. In the meantime, Moscow is striving for balancing on the Karabakh track, which allows it to maintain positive dynamics in relations with Yerevan and Baku, as well as with Turkey, Iran, France and even the United States.
"And this is where the Minsk Group is important. And besides this format, Russia, together with the MG, will simultaneously develop contacts with Turkey and Iran. As well as separately with France and the United States. In this light, it is clearly premature to write off the old peacekeeping formats. to persist, especially since there is interest in them from the leading players, without whom any resolution of the Karabakh conflict is impossible today, "Markedonov summed up.