Forecast: Catching Russia by the hand, Erdogan will twist it whenever  possible

ArmInfo. Moscow's passivity in observing Armenian interests and implementing the points of the November 9 Statement has a rather simple explanation. Russia is no  longer an omnipotent empire. An independent analyst Saro Saroyan  expressed this opinion to ArmInfo.

"Our society stubbornly refuses to admit to itself that today's  Russia is not what it used to be. Meanwhile, a number of  circumstances, both during the war and as a result of it, are  directly related to the lowering of the role of Russia. This was also  related to the consolidation of the Turkish military in the South  Caucasus following the results of the July joint Turkish-Azerbaijani  military exercises," he said.

Thus, the 44-day war, according to the analyst, only proved the  correctness of Ankara's calculations regarding the possibility of  Moscow's influence on the current situation. After that, in order to  "save face", Russia used political tools, deploying its peacekeepers  in Artsakh. Thus, Moscow is trying to demonstrate to the world that  nothing threatens its role and importance in the region. However, the  reality, according to Saroyan, looks somewhat different.

According to him, Moscow hoped that the deployment of Russian  peacekeepers in Artsakh would bring at least temporary stability to  the South Caucasus, but even here the Russian calculations were not  justified.  The reason is Turkey's awareness of Russia's  unwillingness to go to a military clash, awareness of Moscow's  readiness to do everything for this, including its readiness to  sacrifice Armenia.

"As a result, we have become part of a geopolitical bargaining chip  between Russia and Turkey. And we are not even trying to realize that  we are being sacrificed, even if forcedly. Russia will do everything  to achieve at least relative stability in relations with the Turks.  Erdogan, in turn, is well aware that he has caught Russia by the hand  in its impotence and will twist it whenever possible. Accordingly,  one should not expect stability in this light," he stressed.

In this regard, the analyst stated a complete fiasco of the long-term  political line of Yerevan on assigning responsibility for the  security of Armenia and Artsakh to Moscow. According to him, the  hopes of the Armenian authorities to get rid of security problems by  shifting all responsibility onto the shoulders of Russia turned out  to be illusory, especially in light of the fact that during the 44  days of a difficult war, several military-political centers of power  fought against Armenia.

"Thus, making sovereign decisions by taking full responsibility for  these decisions remains practically no alternative for the Armenian  leadership. They simply do not leave us any other option. I think  that even in the current situation it will be the best decision for  Armenia. And on this path first it is necessary to stop pinning hopes  on others. After that, new configurations and opportunities for  further actions will begin to emerge," the analyst concluded.