Military expert: Ceasefire violations in Artsakh can be prevented  following the Donbass model

ArmInfo. In the absence of initiation of a whole series of steps, violation of the ceasefire regime, incidents in the zone of the Karabakh conflict may take on a  long-term character. Head of Eurasian integration and development of  the SCO Department at the Institute of CIS Countries, military expert  Vladimir Evseev expressed a similar opinion to ArmInfo.

"Based on the experience of studying the ceasefire regimes in modern  conflicts, I can say that the declaration of a truce and the  deployment of peacekeepers is not enough. And the likelihood of a  situation igniting in such conditions remains quite high. Especially  in the case when both sides do not agree with the military results of  the conflict and are deployed in difficult mountainous terrain in  conditions of borders, that have not been yet finally specified," he  stressed.

In this light, the expert considers it a possible and correct  solution to use the Donbass model of separating the parties to the  conflict in Artsakh. The events in Donbass, all the attempts to  establish a ceasefire regime there also demonstrated the need for  additional measures to strengthen it.

Evseev sees the solution to the problem in the formation of a "gray  zone" between the parties to the conflict in Artsakh. A territory  where there will be neither Armenian nor Azerbaijani military. The  expert is convinced that the creation of such a zone will  significantly reduce the likelihood of provocations.

Evseev considers another important factor on this path the withdrawal  of heavy weapons from the front line. In the conditions of the truce,  the expert considers their presence on the contact line unreasonable.   Another drawback of the current situation, according to his  estimates, is the absence of a mechanism for recording and monitoring  violations of the ceasefire regime.

"Meanwhile, the "gray zone", which our military may well control,  may also be useful in increasing the efficiency of the peacekeeping  contingent. The latter is limited in number and the movement of the  military along a limited trajectory will allow to neutralize this  factor. Russia is not against an increase in the peacekeeping  contingent, but it is too early to talk about this. The main issue  today is the development of correct mechanisms to control the  situation," the expert emphasized.