Forecast: A new situation will form around Karabakh

ArmInfo. A completely new situation is already being formed around the Karabakh settlement. This process is due to the formation of new forces in the world that have a completely different influence in the South Caucasus. A similar opinion was expressed to ArmInfo by the head of scientific research of the Institute "Dialogue of Civilizations" Aleksey Malashenko.

“Against this background, with its zero impact on the situation during all 44 days of the war in Karabakh, the OSCE Minsk Group finally proved its own inconsistency and powerlessness. The Minsk format is the only recognized format for resolving the conflict. However, being cut off from the region, this format was unable to somehow influence the situation. In this light, I do not expect changes in the current situation from the upcoming visit of the co-chairs to Yerevan and Baku, ”he stressed.

On December 9, speaking at a briefing for members of the Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe under the US Congress, acting US Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Philip Riker said that the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs will visitBaku and Yerevan.

“Washington continues to call on Azerbaijan and Armenia to settle the Karabakh conflict in the format of the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairmanship.

US Co-Chair Andrew Shaffer will travel with the other co-chairs to Baku and Yerevan this weekend to determine where we can move forward in a diplomatic solution to this conflict. The United States insists on working out a lasting solution to the conflict at the negotiating table, ”Ricoeur said.

According to Malashenko's estimates, as a result of the 44-day war, a completely new situation has formed in the region. And the ceasefire declaration signed with the mediation and encouragement of Moscow does not signify the end of the Karabakh conflict. In this light, in his opinion, today it is very difficult to predict how the situation will develop tomorrow. Not to mention the situation in 5 years, when the term for the deployment of Russian peacekeepers ends.

 “The essence of the new reality is Turkey's positioning itself in the region as a superpower. And the expansion of Turkish influence is both in line with and contrary to Russian interests. Difficult negotiations are still going on between Moscow and Ankara. These negotiations will continue, however, outside the framework of the OSCE Minsk Group. The war was stopped as a result of the involvement of a different, unrecognized and unsecured format. Nevertheless, this format, conditioned by regional interests, has already become a factor, ”Malashenko stressed.