ArmInfo.The resolution adopted by the French Senate the day before is a step towards curbing Turkish expansion, and not only in the South Caucasus. An independent analyst Saro Saroyan expressed this opinion to ArmInfo.
November 25 French Senate by an absolute majority - 305 1 - passed a resolution calling on the government of the country to recognize the independence of Artsakh. The resolution also condemns the military aggression of Azerbaijan, carried out with the support of the Turkish authorities and foreign mercenaries, and also requires the immediate withdrawal of the Azerbaijani Armed Forces and their support formations from the territories occupied after the outbreak of hostilities on September 27. "The results of the 44-day war in Artsakh, formalized in the trilateral Statement of November 9, demonstrated the inability of Russia to resist the expansionary policy of Turkey. Erdogan's Turkey penetrated into the region previously considered a Russian fiefdom. This state of affairs naturally caused serious concern in European countries and more broadly in the West as a whole. In other words, in all centers of power interested in containing Turkey, "he stressed.
Assessing the results of the 44-day war as another violation of the geopolitical balance, this time in the South Caucasus, Saroyan views the French Senate resolution as a step towards restoring this balance. Moreover, the analyst does not exclude similar steps from other European countries, as well as certain steps from the United States, which is also concerned about Turkish expansionism.
Thus, the analyst explains the prospect of further progress in the process of recognition of Artsakh's independence by European countries, including France, by Turkey's response to these steps. In particular, the possibility of Ankara "back" in the Caucasus, and even more likely in the Middle East, including the Eastern Mediterranean. In this case, according to his forecasts, the recognition process will be suspended. "However, when calculating the likelihood of such a scenario, it is necessary to take into account the personal factor of the Turkish president. Erdogan is already used to achieving his goals. He is used to constant victories, accustomed to the absence of a loss. In this light, it is highly likely that Ankara will simply not succumb to pressure and will continue its own expansionism. In this case, France and Europe will not have to come to terms with the imbalance, come to terms with the new regional status quo, "the analyst concluded.
The French Senate resolution also orders the French government to provide large-scale support to the people of Artsakh, as well as initiate an international commission to investigate war crimes against the peaceful population of Artsakh. The resolution calls on the French government to make every effort to resume the negotiation process, securing the 1994 borders, as well as to ensure the safety of the Armenian population and the right of displaced persons to return.