Markedonov: November 10 document is an illustration of Russian  foreign policy

ArmInfo.The document of November 10 is an excellent and graphic illustration of Russia's foreign policy and foreign policy course in the South Caucasus  region. A similar opinion was expressed to ArmInfo by Sergei  Markedonov, a leading researcher at the Institute of International  Studies at MGIMO of the Russian Foreign Ministry, editor-in-chief of  the journal "International Analytics".

"What happened, of course, has a global level and subtext. Which is a  separate topic for a separate study.  But returning to the regional  level, we can state that Russia has no desire for a final choice  between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Yerevan. And, of course, the  awareness of the danger of Azerbaijan's transformation into a second  Georgia. Taking into account its economic and military potential,  proximity to Turkey, the risks from such a development of events for  the Russian presence in the Caucasus will be enormous. Hence the neat  balance, which does not imply emotions and unequivocal assessments, "  - he stressed.

On November 10, the leaders of Russia, Armenia and Azerbaijan,  Vladimir Putin, Nikol Pashinyan and Ilham Aliyev, adopted a joint  ceasefire statement, which entered into force on November 10. Within  the framework of this agreement, Armenia is making a number of  territorial concessions. Yerevan undertook to transfer the Kelbajar  region to Baku by November 15, the Agdam region by November 20, and  the Lachin region by December 1. All the territories occupied during  the war remain with Azerbaijan. Lachin corridor - 5 km wide, will  provide communication between Artsakh and Armenia under the control  of Russian peacekeepers, who will also be deployed along the line of  contact in Artsakh.  According to the analyst, Armenia cannot count  on joining NATO as long as Turkey is there. And the collective West  is not ready to make more favorable offers to Yerevan than even the  latest offers from Moscow. Especially considering the fact that the  territory of Armenia itself in recent decades has not become an arena  of armed confrontation with neighboring countries, not least thanks  to Russia.  It is with these realities that the analyst determines  Moscow's restraint in relation to the conflict that has flared up  since September 27. At the same time, according to his estimates, on  November 10 it was Russia that was the main initiator of the  ceasefire agreement. After that, the shooting really stopped, and the  Russian peacekeepers ended up in Karabakh. However, in his opinion,  there is still no talk of a full-fledged peace, and the further  development of Karabakh, taking into account its importance, the  entire Caucasus, is only being drawn.

"The emotions and arguments of Armenia, of course, can be understood.  However, the new agreement does not at all mean Moscow's consent to  the full military triumph of Baku. The peacekeeping forces are being  introduced not into Azerbaijan, but into the territory of the  unrecognized NKR, at a point that is formally recognized as part of  Azerbaijan," but where there is no real control of it. And it is not  assumed in full, at least in the next 5 years. All this speaks about  the special allocation of this territory. And, despite the fact that  the document does not mention the status of the NKR, by default it  implies at least a deferred nature So, there is no talk of repeating  the scenario of the Serbian Krajina. There are, of course, many  questions for the agreement. However, it cannot be called a game with  only one goal, "the analyst concluded.