Analyst: Superpower Claims Against Turkey Do Not Cancel Their  Dissolved Hopes

ArmInfo.The armed confrontation in Nagorno-Karabakh, which has not abated for a month, is accompanied by fruitless attempts by the mediators to return the  parties to negotiations in order to achieve a peaceful settlement.

A similar opinion was expressed to ArmInfo by Sergei Markedonov, a  leading researcher at the Institute of International Studies at MGIMO  of the Russian Foreign Ministry, editor-in-chief of the journal  "International Analytics".

"Note that Russia and the West have never opposed each other during  the entire existence of the Karabakh conflict. And Turkey's active  desire to break the political monopoly of the OSCE Minsk Group  co-chairing countries, in theory, should have brought their positions  closer together. At first glance, the scheme is impeccable. however,  this apparent impeccability collides with some important nuances, "he  stressed.  On October 24, Foreign Ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan  Zohrab Mnatsakanyan and Jeyhun Bayramov at a meeting with US Deputy  Secretary of State Stephen Bigan "reaffirmed their commitment to the  implementation of the ceasefire agreement for humanitarian purposes."  On October 25, the State Department announced the return of the  parties to the conflict to a ceasefire at 08:00 on October 26. This  is already the third initiative on a ceasefire for humanitarian  purposes, however, according to the Artsakh Defense Army, Azerbaijan  has already violated this ceasefire.

Markedonov believes that the obvious importance of the Karabakh war  does not in any way cancel out the differences between Russia, France  and the United States outside the framework of the Karabakh story.   And such discrepancies, according to his assessments, are still quite  a lot, which does not add to Moscow, Paris and Washington either  mutual trust or desire for joint work. Moreover, the extensive claims  of the superpowers against Turkey do not cancel their conflicting  hopes regarding Turkey. In this light, the analyst highlighted  Russia's desire to weaken NATO with Turkey's help, while noting the  US's intention to prevent this.

According to the analyst, the aforementioned geopolitical nuances  significantly complicate the possibility of a consolidated approach  by the mediators to a peaceful resolution of the conflict. And  according to Markedonov, the breakdown of the status quo from 1994  only complicates the situation, since the parties to the conflict  themselves, before sitting down at the negotiating table, strive, on  the one hand, to consolidate this breakdown, and, on the other, to  return the situation to the pre-war situation.

"It is necessary to understand that the success of peacekeeping  efforts should be accompanied by an interest in mutual compromises of  the conflicting parties themselves. This is not observed today either  in Armenia or in Azerbaijan. Nevertheless, even against such a  background, political and diplomatic departure from realities is  impossible. Accordingly, initiatives in The mediators need to  continue the direction of peace, but continue, realizing the  impossibility of achieving it quickly. Yerevan and Baku, in the first  place, should rely not on external efforts, but on their own  responsibility for what is happening, "Markedonov concluded.