ArmInfo.The imposition of international economic sanctions will paralyze Turkey very quickly. Such a turn of events will significantly contribute to reducing the geopolitical and other ambitions of Recep Erdogan, forcing him to focus on the country's internal problems. President of the Institute for Energy Security, Doctor of Political Sciences Vahe Davtyan expressed a similar opinion to ArmInfo.
"It is necessary to understand that our victory over Turkey, respectively, Azerbaijan can be achieved, including at the geo-economic level. For which it is necessary to conduct consistent and systematic work of Armenian diplomacy. Given the current state of the Turkish economy, today is the most convenient time to lobby for the use of international sanctions against Turkey and its excessively aggressive sultan, "the expert said.
The Turkish lira exchange rate has renewed another anti-record against the US dollar, reaching 7.58 lira per US dollar. For comparison, we recall that back in 2011, the exchange rate of 1 US dollar was 2 lira.
According to Davtyan's estimates, Turkey's own economic strength and structure differs significantly from the same Russia or Iran. The latter, through a high level of import substitution, have already learned to live in conditions of international sanctions. The same cannot be said about Turkey with its European-based economy. The expert stressed that the main foreign trade and investment partners of Turkey are the EU countries, in particular Germany.
" But despite the investments, a certain outflow of foreign capital from Turkey is already visible today. The anxiety of foreign investors caused by the policy of the Turkish Central Bank is also visible with the naked eye. In general, the annual decline in foreign direct investment in Turkey since 2016 reaches 30- 35%. Turkey's share of FDI has already decreased from 2.3% to 1.4%, "he stressed.
According to the expert's forecasts, this state of affairs and, most importantly, the trends in the Turkish economy lead to an inevitable increase in unemployment, respectively, to an increase in social tension. According to him, the unemployment rate in Turkey reached 15%, which is an extremely negative indicator even in comparison with the 8% figure in the 1991-2001 crisis for the Turkish economy. According to Davtyan's forecasts, the political capitalization of the observed increase in social tension will not be long in coming .
"If Western sanctions are imposed on Erdogan's Turkey, some Arab countries will immediately join them. Saudi Arabia has already imposed an embargo on the import of Turkish goods. The collapse of the Turkish economy is a fact. Accordingly, today it is important now to give this process an additional impetus. In turn leads to an increase in opposition sentiments in Turkey, as evidenced by the defeat of the Erdogan AKP in the 2019 local elections in the largest cities of Turkey. I am convinced that this consistently growing opposition segment will play an important role in the overthrow of Erdogan and reformatting Ankara's foreign strategy, "Davtyan summed up.