ArmInfo.Any diplomacy, any negotiations around Artsakh can rely solely on specific military results achieved by the parties at this stage of the conflict. Russian political analyst Vadim Dubnov expressed this opinion to ArmInfo.
"It makes no sense to talk about substantive negotiations in an unstable situation at the front. Azerbaijan still has not won and is still striving to achieve its goals. In other words, there is simply nothing for diplomats to rely on in such a situation. For example, if the Azerbaijani army succeeds in taking Jabrail , this can become not only the final point in this phase of the conflict, but also become the starting point for negotiations. As, incidentally, Baku's awareness of the complete impossibility of achieving this, "he stressed.
On October 8, the talks on Nagorno-Karabakh were held in Geneva with the participation of the OSCE MG co-chairs and the Azerbaijani Foreign Minister. The meeting took place in a secret place and in a closed format. On October 11-13, Armenian Foreign Minister Zohrab Mnatsakanyan will visit Moscow. During the visit, he will hold talks with his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov.
In this light, according to his assessments, both Russia and the other mediators are today awaiting the establishment of an intermediate, new line of contact between the parties to the conflict. Or the formation of a stable tactical balance of forces, when the inability of the Azerbaijani army to advance is finally clear. In Dubnov's opinion, the fate of the current military clash today is being determined in the southern direction, where Baku is actively trying to take the Jabrayil region. The further course of events, according to his forecasts, will be based on the success or failure of the actions of the Azerbaijani army in this direction. At the same time, he did not rule out that the efforts undertaken by the mediators on the eve in the direction of stopping the bloodshed were due to their greater awareness of the real state of affairs in the south.
Speaking about the prospects of the negotiation process in general, Dubnov noted with regret that the observed surge of violence around Artsakh is far from the last. According to him, in such situations and in similar conflicts, hostilities are rather the penultimate ones. In this light, the analyst re-emphasized the importance of the parties' initial positions in the interim period of the resumption of negotiations. "If Azerbaijan manages to grab at least something by war, this will lead to an unshakable position of Baku. If not, the situation at the talks will develop differently. So far, Aliyev has no tangible evidence of his own success," Dubnov summed up.