Analyst: Diplomacy around Artsakh can only rely on military results

ArmInfo.Any diplomacy, any negotiations around Artsakh can rely solely on specific military results achieved by the parties at this stage of the conflict.  Russian political analyst Vadim Dubnov expressed this opinion to  ArmInfo.

"It makes no sense to talk about substantive negotiations in an  unstable situation at the front. Azerbaijan still has not won and is  still striving to achieve its goals. In other words, there is simply  nothing for diplomats to rely on in such a situation. For example, if  the Azerbaijani army succeeds in taking Jabrail , this can become not  only the final point in this phase of the conflict, but also become  the starting point for negotiations. As, incidentally, Baku's  awareness of the complete impossibility of achieving this, "he  stressed.

On October 8, the talks on Nagorno-Karabakh were held in Geneva with  the participation of the OSCE MG co-chairs and the Azerbaijani  Foreign Minister. The meeting took place in a secret place and in a  closed format. On October 11-13, Armenian Foreign Minister Zohrab  Mnatsakanyan will visit Moscow. During the visit, he will hold talks  with his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov.

In this light, according to his assessments, both Russia and the  other mediators are today awaiting the establishment of an  intermediate, new line of contact between the parties to the  conflict. Or the formation of a stable tactical balance of forces,  when the inability of the Azerbaijani army to advance is finally  clear.  In Dubnov's opinion, the fate of the current military clash  today is being determined in the southern direction, where Baku is  actively trying to take the Jabrayil region. The further course of  events, according to his forecasts, will be based on the success or  failure of the actions of the Azerbaijani army in this direction. At  the same time, he did not rule out that the efforts undertaken by the  mediators on the eve in the direction of stopping the bloodshed were  due to their greater awareness of the real state of affairs in the  south.

Speaking about the prospects of the negotiation process in general,  Dubnov noted with regret that the observed surge of violence around  Artsakh is far from the last. According to him, in such situations  and in similar conflicts, hostilities are rather the penultimate  ones. In this light, the analyst re-emphasized the importance of the  parties' initial positions in the interim period of the resumption of  negotiations. "If Azerbaijan manages to grab at least something by  war, this will lead to an unshakable position of Baku. If not, the  situation at the talks will develop differently. So far, Aliyev has  no tangible evidence of his own success," Dubnov summed up.