Friday, October 2 2020 14:31

ArmInfo. With its latest adventurous actions against Armenia and Artsakh, Turkey is quite deliberately provoking the danger of a direct clash between NATO and  Russia.  Director of the Institute of Oriental Studies of the  National Academy of Sciences of Armenia, Academician Ruben Safrastyan  expressed a similar opinion to ArmInfo.

"Objectively, the military-political and economic potential of Turkey  does not give it the opportunity to pursue such an aggressive policy  simultaneously in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, Libya, the Eastern  Mediterranean, and now in the South Caucasus. And the fact that  Ankara is pursuing this policy is evidence of its adventurousness.  Considering that so far Erdogan has gotten away with all this, he is  apparently confident that he will do it this time too," he said.

According to Safrastyan's estimates, Erdogan's goal is to establish  and consolidate Turkey in the South Caucasus. After that, according  to his forecasts, Turkey will try to change the format of the  negotiation process. In this regard, he recalled the repeated  statements of Baku and Ankara, their dissatisfaction with the Minsk  format of the negotiation process. The academician explains the  latter by Turkey's desire to become a mediator itself and its bad  relations with all the co-chairing countries.

In this light, Safrastyan views Ankara's recent actions as part of  its plan to undermine the Minsk format and transfer the negotiation  process into a completely new Turkish-Russian channel. Thus, Erdogan  intends to gain control over the negotiations on Artsakh almost equal  to those of Russia. Moreover, the academician does not expect a  unified reaction from the collective West to such appetites of  Ankara, explaining this by differences in their positions and  interests. "Europe, by the way, has not so many levers left to put  pressure on Turkey. But the United States has them. But here another  very important circumstance arises. From Western logic, Turkey today  is carrying out a mission that fits well with the West's policy in  the South Caucasian direction, the policy of ousting Russia from the  South Caucasus. In this light, before attacking Artsakh and Armenia,  Erdogan also insured himself in the western direction, "Safrastyan  summed up.