Alexander Iskandaryan: Today`s aggravation in Nagorno-Karabakh was  not an accident

ArmInfo.Today's escalation in Nagorno-Karabakh was not an accident, the behavior of Azerbaijan in recent times gave reason to believe that something like this could  happen. The Director of the Caucasus Institute (Yerevan) Alexander  Iskandaryan expressed this opinion in an interview with Ukraine.ru.

According to him, everything is really very serious. Stepanakert has  not been bombed for 26 years since the end of the war in 1994. There  were, of course, tensions and escalations, including large ones (in  2014, 2016 and in July 2019). But let me stress once again, artillery  strikes were not fired on cities and the capita for quite a long  time.

Iskandaryan avoided to predict whether the war would develop into  large-scale actions on the ground, but there is every reason for  responding appropriately.

In his opinion, there was no surprise factor. The behavior of  Azerbaijan for several weeks gave reason to think that something like  this could happen. It was said in Baku that it was pointless to  negotiate, that it was necessary to solve the problems by military  means, and a few days ago there were reports about reservists and  about the mobilization of private cars with a body from people, which  could be used for military purposes.

It started in the morning, at about 7:00am. Moreover, just a few  minutes later, the correspondent of the Turkish state TV channel TRT  HABER began working there. That is, he arrived there in advance, and  in the last hours this information is constantly on the Turkish news.  This suggests that everything was prepared in advance. Events of this  magnitude cannot be accidental.  

Speaking about concrete benefits that Azerbaijan wants to derive from  this aggravation, Iskandaryan noted that one should speak not about  Azerbaijan, but about the regime. There are many problems in  Azerbaijan itself. The July attempt to aggravate the situation  directly on the very border with Armenia ended in failure, a general  was killed, a fairly large number of drones were shot down, including  an Israeli-made drone, which had not been shot down before. There is  also some pressure inside Azerbaijan now, dissatisfaction,  frustration. "I think this is a way of responding to this situation,"  the political scientist noted. "But, of course, it is difficult to  speak about this with proof, because Azerbaijan has a rather specific  closed regime.  The situation in the country can only be investigated  using secondary algorithms, there is practically no media there. Now  they have turned off almost the entire Internet. YouTube is disabled  there, Facebook is disabled there, Tik Tok is disabled there so that  people cannot give each other real information. That is, it is  difficult for me to judge what is happening in the Azerbaijani  elites. But there is no doubt that something quite important is  happening there, "Iskandaryan said.

Speaking about the role of the CSTO and what exactly should happen so  that the alliance considers providing military assistance to Armenia,  the political scientist noted that, firstly, what is happening now is  happening on the border of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic and  Azerbaijan. And not on the border of Armenia and Azerbaijan. Artsakh  is not a member of the CSTO. In order to receive assistance, at least  a request from Armenia is needed. At the moment there is no such  thing yet. In order to react to this, you must at least have an idea  of how the situation will develop. In addition, contacts are needed,  although I am sure they are. In any case, all this takes some time.

Speaking about the peacekeeping role of Russia in the conflict, given  that Armenia is its ally, and Azerbaijan is an equally important  partner, the political scientist noted that the point is not even  that Armenia is an ally of Russia. Russia is one of the three  co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group, along with France and the United  States. It is clear that Russia plays an important role in this  matter simply because it is geographically closer and has many more  tools to influence the parties to the conflict. "Usually in such  cases some kind of diplomatic mechanisms are involved, very often  closed ones. This will be done. Is there anything more needed? I  repeat, it depends on how the situation will develop,> Iskandaryan  stressed