ArmInfo. Azerbaijan will not aggravate the situation and will not resort to large-scale military operations with Armenia limiting itself to tough positional clashes, which, most likely, will be suspended due to the represented by official Moscow and Minsk mediators, the head of the Armenian rating agency AmRating, economic observer Emmanuil Mkrtchyan expressed this opinion commenting on the situation with the escalation of tension on the Armenian- Azerbaijani border in the Tavush region.
Mkrtchyan expressed the idea that the continuation of the armed conflict is not beneficial not only to the Aliyev clan, which, as a result of several defeats, could simply lose power and go on trial in its own country, but, first of all, Moscow, which risks losing the secular Azerbaijan, which, as a result of the "revolution", can be reformatted into an extremely nationalist Islamist state, in fact, a puppet one, serving the ambitious Ankara. The latter today presents itself not just as a regional power, but as the main driving force of the so-called process and, at the same time, the pivotal country of the Greater East from Albania to the Uyghur autonomy of China.
The conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan cannot become Casus Belli for involvement of neighboring countries, since the situation with the alignment of regional forces, not to mention the interests of world power centers, does not yet give the reason to consider such scenario. In this context, the aggressive position of Turkey, which unambiguously expressed support for Azerbaijan, is nothing more than a verbal confirmation of the political vector for the revival of the foreign policy concept of Islamic pan-Turkism, the real establishment of which would be not only unfavorable, but even fatal for the main world centers of power.
It would be fatal for Russia, which is belted in its underbelly by "Islamic" autonomous entities and the republics of Central Asia, which are quite independent and are becoming more and more uncontrolled, including due to the Turkish cultural, educational and economic expansion.
It would be dangerous for China, which does not tolerate Uyghur separatism, warmed up by Turkey, threatening to throw sand in the wheels of the global project "The Great Silk Road" as an alternative to US marine hegemony and a good opportunity for China's world trade and economic expansion into European markets.
The super power United States is also not interested in such development. It will not tolerate the possibility of the existence of one major player in the Greater East, who would set the tone, moreover, as the events in Syria proved, such an ambitious and, uncontrolled one like Erdogan Turkey, which systematically and intentionally undermines by its domestic policy the foundations of a secular state defined by the Mustafa Kemal's .
It would be unfavorable for the old Europe either, which is just waking up after a 75-year post-war sweet hibernation, and is not in the best condition. A united Europe, abandoned, obsessed with its isolationism, Britain, and the behavioral attacks of the collaborationist Visegrad group of countries towards it. Both "old" and "new" Europe have special claims in Turkey, which is periodically interfering in European affairs, trying to weaken it as a geopolitical rival.
Therefore, according to Mkrtchyan, both Russia and all other large and small countries need the Aliyevs, since they are not ready, and do not want to get involved into the global Turkish pan-Turkic adventure. Perhaps Erdogan does not want to realize this, trying to remain faithful to traditional Turkish diplomacy, playing on the contradictions of the interests of the powers, and, recently, very clumsily. But the Aliyevs, of course, understand all this, moreover, they understand this at the level of the innate instinct of self- preservation.