ArmInfo. Overestimating the impact of coronavirus on the dynamics of the Karabakh conflict is clearly not worth it. A similar opinion was expressed by ArmInfo Russian analyst Sergei Markedonov.
According to him, the comments according to which the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan are trying to warm up the conflict in order to divert the attention of the two societies from internal problems, primarily caused by the coronavirus, have little to do with reality. According to the analyst, there are enough problems in two countries, including those related to COVID-19. At the same time, the problem around the Karabakh conflict is much deeper than the temporary problems caused by the pandemic. "Today, once again, we are observing the development of the conflict on the state border between Armenia and Azerbaijan, far beyond the Karabakh contact line. Traditionally, less attention is paid to this direction, although the situation on the border is more complicated and potentially dangerous than on the Karabakh direction. The reason is the lack of demarcation-delimitation of the border between two openly hostile states, "he said.
Fueled by a long-standing conflict, the uncertainty of the border leads to the struggle for small neutral territories, which each side considers its own. According to Markedonov's forecasts, such a confrontation is fraught with potentially dangerous escalations with the involvement of third forces. In this light, he emphasized that the confrontation on the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan threatens to flow into an open interstate military conflict between the CSTO member Armenia and Azerbaijan, which has special relations with Turkey.
The analyst considers the main thing in all this to be the lack of mechanisms for resolving border conflicts in the updated Madrid principles. Meanwhile, cross-border incidents drag out the peace process even more and, at the same time, do not have clear plans for minimization and prevention. Markedonov also noted the greater resources and possibilities of Russia's influence on the parties to the conflict on the "border" direction than directly on the Karabakh track. At the last, Moscow's efforts are complemented by the United States and France, which now, according to his estimates, is not up to Karabakh.
"In this light, the risks of a possible escalation on the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan are much higher for Russia. Therefore, it is important to act effectively and accurately. The fact that the conflict is beneficial to Russia is a myth. In reality, it's beneficial for us to resolve it. The whole question is "What patterns to implement it. And while there is still a long way to go before this settlement, stopp