Forecast: Armenian-Azerbaijani confrontation on the border threatens  to flow into interstate military conflict

ArmInfo. Overestimating the impact of coronavirus on the dynamics of the Karabakh conflict is clearly not worth it. A similar opinion was expressed by ArmInfo Russian analyst Sergei Markedonov.

According to him, the comments according to which the leaders of  Armenia and Azerbaijan are trying to warm up the conflict in order to  divert the attention of the two societies from internal problems,  primarily caused by the coronavirus, have little to do with reality.  According to the analyst, there are enough problems in two countries,  including those related to COVID-19. At the same time, the problem  around the Karabakh conflict is much deeper than the temporary  problems caused by the pandemic.  "Today, once again, we are  observing the development of the conflict on the state border between  Armenia and Azerbaijan, far beyond the Karabakh contact line.  Traditionally, less attention is paid to this direction, although the  situation on the border is more complicated and potentially dangerous  than on the Karabakh direction. The reason is the lack of  demarcation-delimitation of the border between two openly hostile  states, "he said.

Fueled by a long-standing conflict, the uncertainty of the border  leads to the struggle for small neutral territories, which each side  considers its own. According to Markedonov's forecasts, such a  confrontation is fraught with potentially dangerous escalations with  the involvement of third forces. In this light, he emphasized that  the confrontation on the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan  threatens to flow into an open interstate military conflict between  the CSTO member Armenia and Azerbaijan, which has special relations  with Turkey.

The analyst considers the main thing in all this to be the lack of  mechanisms for resolving border conflicts in the updated Madrid  principles. Meanwhile, cross-border incidents drag out the peace  process even more and, at the same time, do not have clear plans for  minimization and prevention. Markedonov also noted the greater  resources and possibilities of Russia's influence on the parties to  the conflict on the "border" direction than directly on the Karabakh  track. At the last, Moscow's efforts are complemented by the United  States and France, which now, according to his estimates, is not up  to Karabakh.

"In this light, the risks of a possible escalation on the border  between Armenia and Azerbaijan are much higher for Russia. Therefore,  it is important to act effectively and accurately. The fact that the  conflict is beneficial to Russia is a myth. In reality, it's  beneficial for us to resolve it. The whole question is "What patterns  to implement it. And while there is still a long way to go before  this settlement, stopp