ArmInfo. We have to admit that coronavirus has certainly made its adjustments to the demographic indicators of our country, the head of the demography department of the Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs of Armenia Artak Markosyan expressed a similar opinion ArmInfo.
"We don't have the figures for the first half of the year. However, even by the end of the first quarter of 2020, 18,000 more people arrived in Armenia with Armenian passports than left. In 2019, this figure did not exceed 2500. Further trends will become clear after the publication of statistics for the first half of the year. In any case, it is necessary to take into account the fact of closed borders and the suspension of communications with Russia, "he stressed.
At the same time, the demographer noted the presence in Russia of a large number of Armenians who want to return or just visit Armenia. In particular, according to the latest data, 25,000 of them already wait on the line at the Armenian Embassy in the Russian Federation. In this light, according to the results of the current year, Markosyan forecasts the influx of citizens into Armenia. Moreover, he considers that most likely there will be an increase in the population.
Moreover, according to his estimates, mortality in the country in the first quarter of 2020 compared with the same period in 2019, even decreased by 18 people. Markosyan emphasized that in Armenia in recent years there is a gradual decrease in mortality. The demographer explains this by the fact that the small in number generation born in the mid-1940s entered into the average age of life expectancy - 72.2 years. According to his forecasts, after 5 years, when the generation of the 1950s approaches the average indicator of life expectancy, the mortality rate will naturally increase again.
According to him it will be possible to evaluate the influence of coronavirus on the overall mortality rate in the country only after summing up the statistical results of the first half of the year, around August. In the meantime, coronavirus has only had a positive effect on reducing the number of people leaving Armenia. Markosyan emphasized that the studies conducted in 2019 have shown a significant decrease in the number of citizens intending to leave Armenia forever. Meanwhile, as long as 3-4 years ago, more than half of the citizens wanted to leave the country.
"Considering weddings that were postponed this year, coronavirus will affect our demographics next year. Compared to 2018, the number of marriages has increased by 750 in 2019. However, this year I expect this indicator to go negative. Of course, subsequently, everything will return to its place, given that the planned marriages are not canceled, but are postponed to the end of this or next year. In this light, in 2021 we will have a decline in the birth rate. All these children will be born already in 2022, " Markosyan concluded.
It should be noted that the number of COVID-19 infected in Armenia per day increased by 523, reaching 26065 cases. According to the National Center for Disease Control and Prevention, as of the morning of July 1, the number of deaths from infection is 453 people. Another 149 coronavirus infected died for other reasons. 14563 patients recovered. Another 10,900 are undergoing treatment.