Demographer: Coronavirus made its adjustments in the demography of  Armenia

ArmInfo. We have to admit that coronavirus has certainly made its adjustments to the demographic indicators of our country, the head of the demography department of  the Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs of Armenia Artak Markosyan  expressed a similar opinion ArmInfo.

"We don't have the figures for the first half of the year. However,  even by the end of the first quarter of 2020, 18,000 more people  arrived in Armenia with Armenian passports than left. In 2019, this  figure did not exceed 2500. Further trends will become clear after  the publication of statistics for the first half of the year. In any  case, it is necessary to take into account the fact of closed borders  and the suspension of communications with Russia, "he stressed.

At the same time, the demographer noted the presence in Russia of a  large number of Armenians who want to return or just visit Armenia.  In particular, according to the latest data, 25,000 of them already  wait on the line at the Armenian Embassy in the Russian Federation.  In this light, according to the results of the current year,  Markosyan forecasts the influx of citizens into Armenia. Moreover, he  considers that most likely there will be an increase in the  population.

Moreover, according to his estimates, mortality in the country in the  first quarter of 2020 compared with the same period in 2019, even  decreased by 18 people. Markosyan emphasized that in Armenia in  recent years there is a gradual decrease in mortality. The  demographer explains this by the fact that the small in number  generation born in the mid-1940s entered into the average age of life  expectancy - 72.2 years.  According to his forecasts, after 5 years,  when the generation of the 1950s approaches the average indicator of  life expectancy, the mortality rate will naturally increase again.

According to him it will be possible to evaluate the influence of  coronavirus on the overall mortality rate in the country only after  summing up the statistical results of the first half of the year,  around August. In the meantime, coronavirus has only had a positive  effect on reducing the number of people leaving Armenia.  Markosyan  emphasized that the studies conducted in 2019 have shown a  significant decrease in the number of citizens intending to leave  Armenia forever. Meanwhile, as long as 3-4 years ago, more than half  of the citizens wanted to leave the country.

"Considering weddings that were postponed this year, coronavirus will  affect our demographics next year.  Compared to 2018, the number of  marriages has increased by 750 in 2019. However, this year I expect  this indicator to go negative. Of course, subsequently, everything  will return to its place, given that the planned marriages are not  canceled, but are postponed to the end of this or next year. In this  light, in 2021 we will have a decline in the birth rate. All these  children will be born already in 2022, " Markosyan concluded.

It should be noted that the number of COVID-19 infected in Armenia  per day increased by 523, reaching 26065 cases. According to the  National Center for Disease Control and Prevention, as of the morning  of July 1, the number of deaths from infection is 453 people. Another  149 coronavirus infected died for other reasons. 14563 patients  recovered. Another 10,900 are undergoing treatment.