Analyst: There are no substantial negotiations on Karabakh today

ArmInfo.There are no substantial negotiations on demilitarization, the status of Nagorno-Karabakh, the liberation of areas adjacent to the territory of the former Nagorno Karabakh Autonomous Republic and the return of refugees. Leading  researcher at the Euro-Atlantic Security Center of the MGIMO  Institute for International Studies Sergey Markedonov expressed a  similar opinion to ArmInfo.

"The de facto peace process has been replaced by conflict management.  The latter consists in trying to reduce the number of incidents,  exchange prisoners of war and put in place the long-awaited  monitoring of ceasefire violations. For 26 years of the ceasefire,  all possible ideas for resolving the conflict have been voiced: a  package plan, a phased plan, and even a draft of a common state.  However, its parties are still not ready for concessions. Meanwhile,  one cannot also expect new breakthrough ideas for resolving the  conflict in the near future, "he said.

Markedonov recalled that this year marks 13 years since the Madrid  Principles were adopted, which include the basic provisions of a  peaceful settlement. However, over all these years, the parties to  the conflict have not taken almost a single step towards the  "principled" proposals of intermediaries. As a result, in the absence  of implementation by the parties to the conflict, the "principles"  remain only on paper.

Commenting on the regular spread of information about new proposals,  allegedly being discussed at the negotiating table by the parties to  the conflict and mediators, the analyst noted that the real content  of the negotiation agenda is no longer a secret. This is national  self-determination and territorial integrity. And Markedonov does not  see in the foreseeable future any prerequisites for resolving the  contradictions between these two items on the negotiation agenda.

According to his forecasts, not only the Karabakh conflict, but also  other post-Soviet conflicts, which are the product of nationalism,  will outlive the collapse of the USSR for a long time. And the  efforts of mediators alone are clearly not enough to resolve the  Karabakh conflict. The efforts of the ruling elites in the  conflicting countries are necessary, however, the latter are  extremely sensitive to even the idea of compromise, not to mention  its implementation.

"In this light, the Agreement on an unlimited ceasefire in  Nagorno-Karabakh on May 12, 1994 is, in fact, the only political  decision of the parties to the conflict on Karabakh. The agreement  says that, in principle, any political solution is possible on  Karabakh, and, with applying all existing principles, the most  important thing is to eliminate coercion to resolve the conflict by  military means. Regular violations of the ceasefire, the April war of  2016 periodically remind us of the unsteadiness of the peace. In this  light, it is the Armistice Agreement is the  landmark on the path,  that still stands in front of parties to the conflict ", Markedonov  summed up.  Since 1992, the OSCE Minsk Group, represented by the  co-chairs from Russia, the USA and France, has been engaged in the  settlement of the Karabakh conflict. Currently, the settlement  process is nominally proceeding on the basis of the "Madrid  principles" put forward by the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs in 2007 in  Madrid and updated in 2009, which, among other things, envisage the  deployment of a peacekeeping contingent in the conflict zone.