Forecast: Aliyev`s fall will put an end to Russian influence

ArmInfo.At this stage, Russia is solving the problem of strengthening its own influence and position in Azerbaijan. And the best way to do this is to defiantly flout the  interests of Armenia and the Armenians and protect the interests of  Azerbaijan. Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary, former  Foreign Minister of Artsakh Arman Melikyan expressed a similar  opinion to ArmInfo.

"In this light, we should rather consider and analyze the behavior of  our Russian allies, for example, Russian Minister Lavrov's  recent  statement, proceeding, inter alia, from the geopolitical realities in  our region. In its actions, Moscow today does not take into account  only the interests and expectations of the countries of the South  Caucasus. Russian policy is based on an analysis of medium-term and  long-term challenges. I can say that this analysis today speaks of  serious threats awaiting Russia's interests in the near future n the  region, "he remarked.

On April 21, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov described the  document adopted on April 2019 at a meeting of the Foreign Ministers  of Russia, Armenia and Azerbaijan in Moscow as the most important  step in implementing the UN Security Council resolution on the  Karabakh settlement. "These documents suggest progress in a  settlement based on a phased approach. I believe that at the first  stage there shoul dbe the solution of the most pressing problems, the  liberation of a number of areas around Nagorno-Karabakh and the  unblocking of transport, economic and other communications, "he said.

Melikyan recalled that the Aliyev family still rules in Azerbaijan,  which in the person of Heydar Aliyev came to power with the support  of Moscow. The diplomat is sure that the fall of the Aliyev dynasty  will mark the beginning of the end of Russian influence in  Azerbaijan. This, in turn, threatens Moscow with serious  consequences. In this light, he drew the attention of those  responsible for the foreign policy of Armenia to this circumstance,  emphasizing that, against this background, the remaining issues  seemed to be secondary.

"As far as I understand, Moscow is really striving to take the  initiative in its own hands in the negotiation process to resolve the  Karabakh conflict. And at this stage it has not changed its own  approaches in this matter. Baku, in turn, is ready to support its  implementation. In this light I have to once again point out that the  negotiating position of Yerevan continues to be weak and extremely  vulnerable, "he said.

The diplomat considers the main reason for the preservation of such a  situation in the negotiation process to be the lack of necessary  argumentation by the Armenian negotiators in favor of maintaining the  existing territorial integrity of Artsakh. Moreover, starting from  the latest impulses around the negotiation process, Melikyan believes  that the current Armenian authorities, following the example of their  predecessors, obviously refuse to do the "homework" necessary in this  direction.

Since 1992, the OSCE Minsk Group, represented by the co-chairs from  Russia, the USA and France, has been engaged in the settlement of the  Karabakh conflict. Currently, the settlement process is nominally  based solely on the "Madrid principles" put forward by the OSCE Minsk  Group co-chairs in 2007 in Madrid and the Madrid Principles updated  in 2009, which, among other things, envisage the deployment of a  peacekeeping contingent in the conflict zone.