ArmInfo.Turkey cannot afford a war with Russia without military support from the United States and NATO. A similar opinion was expressed by ArmInfo Azerbaijani analyst Rauf Mirkadyrov.
"Meanwhile, Recep Erdogan's relations with the Alliance and with Washington today are very complicated, due to his opposition to Western initiatives. The Turkish president does not want to follow the West's lead, meanwhile, he can count on military assistance only at that cost. Accordingly, for him it's much easier to deal with Russia, with Vladimir Putin, than with the West, "he stressed.
According to Mirkadyrov's estimates, Erdogan's Moscow voyage after his Russian colleague refused a four-sided meeting in Istanbul with the participation of Angela Merkel and Emmanuel Macron was the result of a forced choice. The Turkish president found himself in a very difficult situation in Syria, where he does not want to leave today, while the war in this country is costing Turkey too much. On March 5, following the results of the Moscow talks, Vladimir Putin and Recep Erdogan agreed on a truce after several weeks of bloody battles, during which there was a threat of a direct clash between the Russian and Turkish military. The agreements stipulate that the warring parties in Idlib will remain in their places, while Turkey and Russia will begin joint patrolling of the M4 highway, which passes through areas controlled by the Syrian opposition. At the same time, it is unclear whether all the opposing groups will abide by the agreements.
Mirkadyrov stressed that in Moscow Erdogan actually went to unilateral concessions to Putin. And his very visit to Russia amid a refusal Putin to go to Istanbul was regarded by the Russian media as the first victory Of Russia. At the same time, its main goal is the withdrawal of the Turkish army from Syria Putin has not reached. At the same time, there are no benefits in the Moscow agreements for Turkey, given the transfer of some territories under joint Turkish-Russian control.
"In Moscow, Erdogan obtained from Putin only a temporary ceasefire. And not a single documentary obligation, neither from Russia nor from Syria. Meanwhile, Russia took control of the next territories, limiting the zone of influence of Turkey. Thus, new clashes are inevitable in the absence of Turkey has reliable allies, "Mirkadyrov summed up.