Wednesday, October 23 2019 17:41
David Stepanyan

Forecast: US and Russia will not allow Turkey`s excessive  strengthening  

Forecast: US and Russia will not allow Turkey`s excessive  strengthening  

ArmInfo. Any decisions by Yerevan regarding the situation in and around Syria should be made taking into account confidential information that we do not possess,  political scientist, lawmaker of the parliamentary faction "My Step''  Michael Zolyan expressed a similar opinion to ArmInfo.

"In my opinion, the situation is quite serious, given Erdogan's  tendency to solve his own internal problems through external enemies,  and Kurds traditionally act as such enemies. This time, he got down  to business on a very solid scale while the United States, usually  supporting Kurds, does not intervene. "This can once again serve as a  reminder to Armenia of the need to rely solely on its own, rather  than on external forces," he said.

The parliamentarian considers the main reason for the escalation of  the situation to be the aggravation of the contradictions between  Iran from the one side and Israel with Saudi Arabia, from the other.  In his opinion, this is accompanied by a multiplicative effect and is  projected onto various foci of instability.  According to him, in  parallel, Erdogan is trying to reach certain agreements with the  United States and Russia on Iraq.

At the same time, according to Zolyan, the Syrian carte blanche of  Turkey is a temporary, tactical, but by no means a strategic step,  since neither the United States nor, let alone Russia, are going to  allow Turkey to become too strong. In this light, according to his  forecasts, Turkey is allowed only limited progress, after which  Ankara will be forced to stop military operations.

Zolyan considers the relative stability in Armenia against the  background of hotbeds of instability in the south and southeast of  the borders of the republic the result of internal unity and the  gradual strengthening of Armenian statehood. In this light, in the  short term, he excludes the possibility of Azerbaijan aggravating the  situation around Artsakh. According to him, in any case, such  behavior of Baku will look irrational.  Especially, given that allied  Turkey is involved in a war in Syria, there is no reason to count on  its full assistance in the event of an Azerbaijani invasion of  Artsakh.

"The Turkish defeat in Syria will also be a deterrent for Baku.  However, the successful completion of the Syrian campaign for Turkey,  at the same time, may cause unjustified euphoria in Azerbaijan.  Unjustified, given the completely different balance of power between  the Kurdish forces and the NATO member Turkey's forces on the one  hand and the regular armies of Armenia and Azerbaijan on the other  hand. At the same time, I exclude the possibility of Turkey's direct  military influence on Artsakh and Armenia. Such an influence may be  exclusively indirect, " the lawmaker summarized.

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