Forecast: There are no geopolitical prerequisites for the active phase of the conflict around Artsakh

ArmInfo.Even in the event of another breakdown of the negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan, the resumption of hostilities around Artsakh is by no means considered as the most possible scenario. Expert on security issues, coordinator of the startup "Miatsum" Alliance in Artsakh Hrachya Arzumanyan expressed a similar opinion to ArmInfo, commenting on the talks between the foreign ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan that started in Washington.

On June 19, Washington hosted a meeting between Armenian Foreign Minister Zohrab Mnatsakanyan and OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs Igor Popov (Russia), Stephane Visconti (France) ,Andrew Schoffer (USA), and Personal Representative of the OSCE Chairman-in-Office Andrzej Kasprzyk. A separate meeting of Mnatsakanyan with Elmar Mammadyarov will take place. "For the active phase of the conflict around Artsakh, at least now, there are simply no corresponding geopolitical prerequisites. Against the background of the tension that engulfs the Greater Middle East, the deteriorating situation around Iran and, of course, Turkey, Ilham Aliyev's independent decision on hostilities looks very unlikely. The decision to start a big war, of course, can be made, but not by Azerbaijan, "the analyst is convinced. Commenting on the prospects of the negotiation process in this light, Arzumanyan noted two possible scenarios: the continuation of negotiations or their entry into a state of another long pause. At the same time, he does not exclude that in the second case incidents may occur, similar to the situation of April 2016. According to Arzumanyan, the restoration of full-format negotiations with Stepanakert's participation initiated by Yerevan substantially worried Baku, which was trying to preserve the logic of the negotiation process that existed until recently. Arzumanyan is convinced that it is this logic that largely caused the April war in 2016. In particular, Armenia succumbed to the pressure of the international community, the purpose of which was to negotiate within the framework of the Madrid principles and as a result received April 2016.

"Thus, our own, and indeed international experience shows that firmness in upholding, in accordance with international standards, our own principles is a better position than concessions to external factors, especially if they are made under pressure. I am convinced that a high degree of legitimacy and, accordingly, immunity to external pressure will allow Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan to successfully continue his own competent, both general and part of Artsakh, foreign policy, "the analyst concluded.