Arminfo.info



 Friday, June 14 2019 10:31
David Stepanyan

Wojciech Goretski: If Moscow could control April the war to the end, in Karabakh would have stood the Russian peacekeepers

Wojciech Goretski: If Moscow could control April the war to the end, in Karabakh would have stood the Russian peacekeepers

ArmInfo. Chief Specialist of the Department of Turkey, the Caucasus and Central Asia "Center for Eastern researches "(Warsaw) Wojciech Goretsky in an interview with ArmInfo shares a vision of the situation in the South Caucasus, comments on Armenia’s European perspectives. Analyzes geopolitics in the South Caucasus, main interests outside regional players, reasons and interprets its own version of the causes and consequences of the April 2016 escalation. Predicts possible scenarios situations around Artsakh in the future.

 

- What, in your opinion, would Europeans like to see the South Caucasus of the future, which Caucasus corresponds to the interests of the European Union?

 

-First, we would very much like to see the Caucasus stable, given the relatively short distance separating the region from the borders of the EU. It is in our interests to see the region prosperous, democratic and, accordingly, stable. Since all this is directly interconnected - democratic systems are more stable, which has already been proved by time. Of course, we are interested in developing economic ties with the countries of the Caucasus, developing ties at the level of our societies. Europe in general and Poland, in particular, strive to see your region like this.

 

- What do you think, does the expected abolition of the visa regime with Armenia open up new prospects in bringing our country closer to Europe?

 

- Without a doubt, this is important. Liberalization of the visa regime for Armenia has already happened. And I very much hope that the dialogue between Armenia and the European Union towards the abolition of the visa regime will be crowned with success. In my opinion, such a perspective is quite real. This is the next step towards the European integration of Armenia. And the example of Georgia and Ukraine demonstrates a direct relationship between the abolition of the visa regime and an increase in the human flow towards Europe. I would like to draw your attention to the fact that even today, under the conditions of a visa regime, many young people from Armenia come to Europe in the framework of projects and programs of all sorts. It is young people who have always been and continue to play the role of a kind of transitory of everything new: phenomena, trends and programs. Free entry to Europe from Armenia is a factor that, of course, brings us together. Accordingly, the forthcoming abolition of the visa regime will be of considerable importance in the development of relations between Armenia and the EU countries.

 

-You think that an increase in the number of Armenian citizens freely visiting Europe will be projected over time onto the Armenian state policy in relations with the European Union. Do I understand you correctly?

 

- It really is. Although I would like to recall that the existing Armenia-EU partnership agreement - EU-Armenia Comprehensive and Enhanced Partnership Agreement (CEPA) was signed at the end of 2017 by the government of Serzh Sargsyan. Thus, it is possible to ascertain the preservation of European tendencies after the change of power in Armenia. It is clear that Armenia’s membership in the Eurasian Economic Union excludes a free trade zone with the European Union for the republic. Economically it is simply impossible. However, the political part, other elements of CEPA work quite successfully today and will work even better in the future. Politics is the art of the possible and the science of the relative. Accordingly, within the existing frameworks, Armenia and the EU should try to achieve greater convergence at least at the political level. In my opinion, there are opportunities for closer convergence. To achieve this goal, you must at least use CEPA to the maximum.

 

-In what direction do you see the greatest threat to the interests of the European Union in the South Caucasus?

 

-The main threat is the destabilization of the region. Today, several external players are taking part in the escalation in the Middle East, including Russia, Iran and Turkey. The same three states are present in the South Caucasus, which does not automatically preclude a repetition of the Middle East scenario in your region. However, today I do not see the prerequisites for large-scale destabilization of the situation in the South Caucasus. Thus, the main threat to the EU in the Caucasus is the destabilization of this region as well. We are also concerned about migration flows through the South Caucasus. Moreover, we do not consider migrants directly from the Caucasian countries to be a threat. The collapse of statehood in the countries of the region is today an extremely unbelievable scenario, but it also poses a great threat to Europe. Europe is interested in democratic, stable countries of the Caucasus.

 

- “Velvet” revolution in Armenia, at first glance, demonstrates the commitment of Armenia to the democratic way and values:

 

-We look at all the latest processes in Armenia with great hope. On the other hand, while respecting the geopolitical choice of Armenia in favor of Russia, Europe is in favor of closer cooperation with Armenia. We understand and understand the reasons for the presence of Armenia in the EAEU and somehow do not want to prevent this presence. To drag out Armenia and, in general, someone in the European Union, contrary to the will, is in no way our goal.

 

-Do you consider Georgia as a successful example of the implementation of the DCFTA and AA contracts?

 

- In general, of course, yes. In the end, the change of power in Georgia and the coming to power in the republic of the "Georgian Dream" in October 2012 took place in a democratic way. Nevertheless, we are concerned about the last, last year’s presidential elections in Georgia. According to international observers, an administrative resource was involved in these elections on a large scale. Redemption by the state of the credit indebtedness of a part of citizens in general can be perceived as bribing voters. However, so far, in general, we regard Georgia as a successful example of the implementation of agreements with the EU. In this light, the next parliamentary elections scheduled for 2020 in this country are very important, although some in Georgia are expecting early elections this fall.

 

-I would like to hear your assessment as an expert in the Caucasus for 30 years, the reasons for the April 2016 war. In particular, who, in your opinion, was the winner as a result of the four-day escalation around Artsakh, considering that both Armenia and Azerbaijan were the losers?

 

-It all depends on the framework within which to consider these tragic events.

 

-In the widest.

 

-In the widest, clearly, only Russia was the winner. Because only Moscow once again was able to force the conflicting parties to sit at the negotiating table and complete the escalation in a matter of hours. The rest of the intermediary countries, the co-chair countries of the Minsk Group, could not do this. Thus, following the April escalation, it was Russia that significantly strengthened its own positions and moderation in the Karabakh conflict. At the same time, it is important that Russia has its limitations in the situation around the conflict. In particular, Moscow cannot send its military to Karabakh, even under the guise of a peacekeeping contingent. We also remember very well the not very cordial welcome of Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in Yerevan, which had objective reasons. Another profit of Moscow is forced, but support for its actions towards ending the April escalation in Karabakh by Western partners, in particular, the rest of the co-chair countries of the United States and France.

 

- In other words, it can be stated that the next, of course, locally controlled war around Karabakh is capable of bringing preferences except Moscow?

 

“It seems to me that a new war today is not needed even by Russia, given its limited resources. Russia already has a military presence in Syria and Ukraine and even a small clash around Karabakh does not need Moscow. At the same time, every local war always has the potential to grow into more global conflicts, which no one can control. Let us not forget that Russia did not manage to control even the course of the April escalation around Karabakh to the end it wanted. Otherwise, I do not exclude that Moscow would have managed to end the four-day war by sending its own peacekeepers to Karabakh. Thus, the risk of getting the conflict out of control is very high and you have to be very, very careful with that. I am sure that in Moscow everyone understands this perfectly.

READ ALL COMMENTS

Левон
Никто не оспаривает роль и место России при любом раскладе сил в карабахском регионе. Касаясь этого лучше не демонизировать ее действия и намерения. Что касается самого Карабаха - Арцаха, то для мира необходимо давление самой общественности. Без мирного настроя большинства элэктората, возможности высказываться на разных уровнях, любые действия властей лишь оттдаляют решение. Нужны телемосты, несмотря на неволю сил войны, нужено, главное, правдивое отражение жизни при старом режиме, когда возникла национальная неприязнь. Спрашивается, где берется столько злобы.

POST A COMMENT
Input digits     

News
Official voting results of Russian citizens in Armenia have been  announcedOfficial voting results of Russian citizens in Armenia have been  announced
With With "demarcation" going at this rate it will reach Yerevan:  Pashinyan points out to Tavush residents the need to quickly transfer  4 villages to Azerbaijan
Pashinyan meets with Tavush residents as promised earlier: Details of  meeting have not yet been providedPashinyan meets with Tavush residents as promised earlier: Details of  meeting have not yet been provided
Stoltenberg: Azerbaijani-Turkish armed forces close cooperation  strengthens Azerbaijan-NATO relationsStoltenberg: Azerbaijani-Turkish armed forces close cooperation  strengthens Azerbaijan-NATO relations
Armenia and Azerbaijan now have opportunity to achieve enduring peace  after years of conflict - NATO Sec GenArmenia and Azerbaijan now have opportunity to achieve enduring peace  after years of conflict - NATO Sec Gen
Armenian government`s intention to waive the claims filed against  Azerbaijan in international courts to cause irreparable damage to  Armenian people - human rights activists Armenian government`s intention to waive the claims filed against  Azerbaijan in international courts to cause irreparable damage to  Armenian people - human rights activists 
Ardshinbank cardholders can now enjoy a 10% cashback!Ardshinbank cardholders can now enjoy a 10% cashback!
Higher school buildings to be managed by international company -  premierHigher school buildings to be managed by international company -  premier
Armenian CEC rep observe U.S. primaries Armenian CEC rep observe U.S. primaries 
Contemporary Indian writer Arjun Krishna Lal`s book released in  Armenian Contemporary Indian writer Arjun Krishna Lal`s book released in  Armenian 
U.S reaffirms commitment to durable and dignified peace between  Azerbaijan and Armenia - Joe Biden U.S reaffirms commitment to durable and dignified peace between  Azerbaijan and Armenia - Joe Biden 
Deepening Armenian-Indian relations among Armenia`s foreign policy  priorities Deepening Armenian-Indian relations among Armenia`s foreign policy  priorities 
Moscow Moscow "testing" its relations with Yerevan
Armenia`s possible withdrawal from CSTO should take country`s real  needs into account - Russian foreign office rep Armenia`s possible withdrawal from CSTO should take country`s real  needs into account - Russian foreign office rep 
Region closer to peace than ever before - president of Azerbaijan Region closer to peace than ever before - president of Azerbaijan 
Three Sad Stories about FraudstersThree Sad Stories about Fraudsters
Armenia`s Deputy FM admits setback in Armenia-EU visa requirement  simplification Armenia`s Deputy FM admits setback in Armenia-EU visa requirement  simplification 
Opposition is denied access to draft peace treaty with Azerbaijan -  MPOpposition is denied access to draft peace treaty with Azerbaijan -  MP
Stoltenberg: NATO sought to support stronger partnerships with both  Armenia, Azerbaijan in 2023Stoltenberg: NATO sought to support stronger partnerships with both  Armenia, Azerbaijan in 2023
Peter Stano: Armenia may apply to join EUPeter Stano: Armenia may apply to join EU
Azerbaijanis destroy13th-century Armenian khachkar in village of  Tsar, Shaumyan region of occupied ArtsakhAzerbaijanis destroy13th-century Armenian khachkar in village of  Tsar, Shaumyan region of occupied Artsakh
Zatulin: Strengthening Armenian-EU relations to require  revision of  Armenia`s membership in EAEUZatulin: Strengthening Armenian-EU relations to require  revision of  Armenia`s membership in EAEU
Basic principles of settling Armenian-Azerbaijani relations remain  unchanged - MFABasic principles of settling Armenian-Azerbaijani relations remain  unchanged - MFA
Oppositionist: Armenian government has failed its program, including  through CSTOOppositionist: Armenian government has failed its program, including  through CSTO
Foreign Minister: We are not negotiating surrender of villages in  Tavush region to AzerbaijanForeign Minister: We are not negotiating surrender of villages in  Tavush region to Azerbaijan
Foreign office: Today, mutual understanding between Yerevan and Baku  regarding mutual recognition of territorial integrity is higher than  month agoForeign office: Today, mutual understanding between Yerevan and Baku  regarding mutual recognition of territorial integrity is higher than  month ago
Statue honoring Soghomon Tehlirian unveiled in MarseilleStatue honoring Soghomon Tehlirian unveiled in Marseille
Armenian Revolutionary Federation holds protest in front of Armenian  Consulate in Los AngelesArmenian Revolutionary Federation holds protest in front of Armenian  Consulate in Los Angeles
Azerbaijan-Iran conflict predestined - Stepan Danielyan Azerbaijan-Iran conflict predestined - Stepan Danielyan 
Turkmenistan and Austria aim to expand the boundaries of bilateral cooperationTurkmenistan and Austria aim to expand the boundaries of bilateral cooperation
Senior Russian diplomat discusses Ukraine, South Caucasus at talks in  AnkaraSenior Russian diplomat discusses Ukraine, South Caucasus at talks in  Ankara
Armenian, Artsakh political forces issue joint statement  Armenian, Artsakh political forces issue joint statement
Our main goal is to return to Artsakh soil - Andrei SergeenkoOur main goal is to return to Artsakh soil - Andrei Sergeenko
AAA disappointed with financial aid to Armenia next year AAA disappointed with financial aid to Armenia next year 
Armenia committed to work actively on implementation of provisions of  EU resolution - Armenia NA speaker Armenia committed to work actively on implementation of provisions of  EU resolution - Armenia NA speaker 
European Parliament approves resolution on closer ties between the EU and ArmeniaEuropean Parliament approves resolution on closer ties between the EU and Armenia
Armenia intends to bring its domestic legislation to conformity with  ICC requirementsArmenia intends to bring its domestic legislation to conformity with  ICC requirements
Artsakh information Center calls on mass media to refrain from unfounded accusations against Artsakh authoritiesArtsakh information Center calls on mass media to refrain from unfounded accusations against Artsakh authorities
4 villages in Tavush are not included in Armenia`s administrative  borders  - minister4 villages in Tavush are not included in Armenia`s administrative  borders  - minister
Defense Minister: Defense Minister: "Nobody gave the order not to open fire"
Ararat Mirzoyan, Louis Bono discuss current security situation in  South Caucasus Ararat Mirzoyan, Louis Bono discuss current security situation in  South Caucasus 
Kremlin: Moscow to clarify with Armenian side situation around  Yerevan`s withdrawal from CSTO Kremlin: Moscow to clarify with Armenian side situation around  Yerevan`s withdrawal from CSTO 
Armenia hosting Francophonie Days Armenia hosting Francophonie Days 
Armenia`s authorities realizing Aliyev`s agenda by starting border  delimitation from Tavush - Mane Tandilyan Armenia`s authorities realizing Aliyev`s agenda by starting border  delimitation from Tavush - Mane Tandilyan 
South Caucasus stability one of Turkiye`s prioritiesSouth Caucasus stability one of Turkiye`s priorities
Tragic events in Nagorno Karabakh made France develop security  cooperation with Armenia - ambassador Tragic events in Nagorno Karabakh made France develop security  cooperation with Armenia - ambassador 
EU applies anti-Russian EU applies anti-Russian "geopolitical optic" everywhere - Russian  official 
Deployment of the EU Civilian Mission in Armenia aimed at  establishing lasting peace and ensuring stability in region - Paruyr  HovhannisyanDeployment of the EU Civilian Mission in Armenia aimed at  establishing lasting peace and ensuring stability in region - Paruyr  Hovhannisyan
Crossroads of Peace project divorced from reality Crossroads of Peace project divorced from reality 
PM: Armenian border guards wto perform their duties at Zvartnots  airport from August 1PM: Armenian border guards wto perform their duties at Zvartnots  airport from August 1
Pashinyan on Arshak Karapetyan`s dismissal reason and his special  relations with MoscowPashinyan on Arshak Karapetyan`s dismissal reason and his special  relations with Moscow
Premier: Yerevan sees and feels Turkiye`s presence in  Armenia-Azerbaijan normalization process Premier: Yerevan sees and feels Turkiye`s presence in  Armenia-Azerbaijan normalization process 
At meeting with French Ambassador, head of Armenia faction, notes  importance of sanctioning Azerbaijan for atrocities in Artsakh At meeting with French Ambassador, head of Armenia faction, notes  importance of sanctioning Azerbaijan for atrocities in Artsakh 
Pashinyan: External forces also provoked main force organizing ethnic  cleansing in KarabakhPashinyan: External forces also provoked main force organizing ethnic  cleansing in Karabakh
Our political force will follow path of institutional solutions -  ex-mayor of Yerevan Our political force will follow path of institutional solutions -  ex-mayor of Yerevan 
Yerevan is ready to expand its agenda with BrusselsYerevan is ready to expand its agenda with Brussels
Soviet Encyclopedia `to help` Pashinyan; Armenia`s territory is less  than 29,800 sq. km.Soviet Encyclopedia `to help` Pashinyan; Armenia`s territory is less  than 29,800 sq. km.
Yerevan is working to return prisoners from Baku, although at times  it looks like `Sisyphean task` - PashinyanYerevan is working to return prisoners from Baku, although at times  it looks like `Sisyphean task` - Pashinyan
If Armenia`s borders are If Armenia`s borders are "red line" for CSTO, let them demonstrate it  - Pashinyan
Pashinyan specifies timeframe of Armenia`s new Constitution  referendum Pashinyan specifies timeframe of Armenia`s new Constitution  referendum 
Read more




Commented