Tuesday, June 11 2019 14:06
David Stepanyan

Forecast: Yerevan`s "flight" from Moscow is unlikely

Forecast: Yerevan`s "flight" from Moscow is unlikely

ArmInfo. At least today, the implementation of the scenario in which Armenia can "flight " from Moscow is unlikely. Sergey Markedonov Leading Researcher of the Euro-Atlantic Security Center at the MGIMO Institute expressed such opinion to ArmInfo .

"The possibility of changing the foreign policy orientation of Armenia in favor of the West existed and still exists today. And it's quite natural that conversations in favor of such a scenario after the change of power in the republic became more frequent. Nevertheless, the change of power in Armenia to significant changes in geopolitical and, especially, the geographical position of the republic was not brought, with all the ensuing consequences, "he is convinced.

At the same time, the analyst states the continuation of the revolutionary processes in Armenia, noting that they didn't stop at the change of government, city authorities and parliament. According to his estimates, in the light of all recent events, very serious changes will overtake the judicial system of the country, and relations with Nagorno-Karabakh that are strategically important for national security.

In the light of the above, Markedonov does not exclude certain adjustments in the foreign policy course of Armenia, noting that for the time being it is not clear how far all this can go. Highlighting the recent words of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan about the expected assistance of international structures in reforming judicial reform, the analyst noted that no external assistance is ever provided solely for altruistic reasons.  According to his estimates, in the context of the Russian-Armenian alliance, all the above plots are extremely important and need careful analysis.

At the same time, commenting on the prospects of the EU Eastern Partnership project, Markedonov stressed that the Brussels conflict of interests on Karabakh, along with the incapacity of the Eastern Partnership, clearly demonstrated that this project did not become integration for the six post-Soviet countries. According to his estimates, their interests and strategic goals are too different.

On May 13, dedicated to the decade of the Eastern Partnership, the solemn summit in Brussels was forced to deviate from the planned scenario due to the special position of Azerbaijan. At the end of the summit, the EU foreign ministers and six member countries of the program did not manage to adopt a single document due to Baku's refusal to sign the declaration. Elmar Mammadyarov, the Foreign Minister of this country, argued this position by the absence of mentioning the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan in the text. As a result, for the first time in 10 years, the final statement was made not on behalf of all the summit participants, but only on behalf of the head of European diplomacy Federica Mogherini

"Over the 10 years of the implementation of the EaP, Moldova, Georgia and Ukraine have taken steps interpreted by them as a serious breakthrough on the path of European integration. Armenia, Azerbaijan and Belarus have shown that the European direction is important but not the only significant one. And each of these six countries looks on Russian foreign policy in different ways. In this context, at least, it is naive to see in Europeanisation some way of resolving the Karabakh conflict, and indeed any other conflict, "the analyst is convinced.

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