Analyst: Having lost its presence in Armenia, Russia will finally  lose the opportunity of domination in the Caucasus

ArmInfo. The OSCE embargo on arms supplies to the parties to the Karabakh conflict will limit Moscow's ability to manipulate Armenia and Azerbaijan. Such an  opinion was expressed to ArmInfo by Eduard Abrahamyan, a researcher  at the Department of International Relations and Security at the  University of Leicester (United Kingdom), an expert at the Washington   based Central Asia-Caucasus Institute,  part of the American Foreign  Policy Council.

" Today Russia considers Armenia as a springboard of its own striving  for regional hegemony and an integral part of its Caucasian security  architecture. Accordingly, having lost its presence in Armenia,  Russia will lose the opportunity to dominate the Caucasus. Moreover,  if Yerevan conducts a more balanced foreign policy, Moscow's ability  to project power from the Caucasus to the Black Sea region will also  face additional restrictions ", he believes.

In this light, Moscow, according to the analyst, considers the arms  race between Armenia and Azerbaijan as a tool for consolidating its  own domination over both conflicting countries. And having voiced in  Yerevan the readiness to supply American armaments with the aim of  "increasing the possibilities of Armenia", US presidential adviser  John Bolton questioned the use of this tool. The American diplomat  also questioned the privileged position of Moscow as a weapon  supplier to Azerbaijan and Armenia.  October 24-26, a delegation of  the US Department of State headed by the President's Adviser on  National Security John Bolton visited Armenia, Azerbaijan and  Georgia. The visit was preceded by Bolton's talks in Moscow. Russian  experts, in general, described the Caucasian tour of the Adviser as  contrary to the interests of the Russian Federation, evidence of the  activation of the US policy towards the Caucasus.  Moscow's nervous  reaction was primarily due to questions raised by Bolton in Yerevan.   Nevertheless, according to the analyst even the replacement of  Russian weapons with American weapons is incapable of resolving the  problem. In his opinion, US interest in arms supplies will most  likely lead to an arms embargo on both sides of the Karabakh  conflict. The arms embargo obligatory for all the OSCE countries on  arms supply to Armenia and Azerbaijan will serve as a stabilizing  factor and will limit Moscow's ability to manipulate the conflicting  parties.

"In Yerevan, Bolton stressed the extreme importance of Armenia's  realization of its full sovereignty, independence of the country from  excessive foreign influence, and also the discrepancy with the  reality of the cliche on" Russia's indispensability for Armenia's  security. "This demonstrated that the US interest in Armenia is more  caused by the Washington's intention to reduce Russian influence in  the county rather than by Iran",  the analyst believes.  At the same  time, a statement issued on October 29 by the Russian Foreign  Ministry accusing Bolton of "interfering in Armenia's affairs and  trying to drive a wedge between the allies" demonstrated Moscow's  determination to continue to keep Armenia in system dependence. This  reaction is expected and not surprising. Moscow doesn't want a change  in Armenia's relations with the United States and the reasons for  this reluctance are evident "Abrahamyan concluded.