Karapet Rubinyan: Total national hatred does not leave Robert Kocharyan any  chances to "return"

ArmInfo. Political and public actor, former Deputy Chairman of the National Assembly of Armenia Karapet Rubinyan in an interview with ArmInfo comments on the prospects for the "return" of former Armenian President Robert Kocharian to big politics. He shares his own vision of the alignment of political forces ahead of the early parliamentary elections scheduled for spring 2019. He talks over  the need to introduce transitional justice bodies in Armenia. 

Robert Kocharian voiced his own return to politics as a fait accompli. Are there preconditions for such a scenario at least in the future, for example, by the date of the early parliamentary elections, or will all come to the end with the decision of the Court of Cassation on his return under arrest? 

Normally  the return to politics  is being made   through political steps. The "return" of Robert Kocharian started with the notification  of the Special Investigative Service. And all his subsequent steps and actions were motivated solely by the desire to avoid the  justified and deserved  punishment. His " you may think that I came back" is a direct proof of this judgment, otherwise Kocharyan would say "do not see? I have already returned". His, geopolitical analysis stated out  in the same interview at the level    of the county  police inspector, simply demonstrated that the ex-President reads newspapers and is familiar with the political map of our region. However, his century-old approaches  with respect to Russia at the same time confirmed the entire situationality of Kocharyan's actions, predicted by the circumstances and the moment. Returning to your question, I note that, given the level of national hatred and disregard enjoyed by Kocharyan, since his illegal presidency to this day, he has no  chances to return to politics in the classical sense of that said.   Of course, he can give interviews filled  up with lies, lies and falsifications, make some statements. It can try to draw sponsors from outside into the internal affairs of Armenia. Kocharyan does, and will do everything, in order to present the criminal prosecution in his attitude as political. Well, he has the right to defend himself, he has no shortage of hired lawyers and defenders. However, we will all just feel more peaceful and secure if all these actions Kocharyan will carry out from a place more appropriate to such actions - from  the prison cell. 

Following the  publications and statements in the media,Kocharyan as of now is being supported yet  by  the RPA and ARF having a pretty low rating. However, given the rather long silence of Gagik Tsarukyan, "Prosperous Armenia" may well support its actual creator in the parliamentary elections in the future. What are the prospects for such a political alignment to you? 

I do not think that it will come to this. It should be kept in mind  that in the conditions of complete exclusion of pre-election bribes in early elections, including under the pretext of charity, Tsarukyan and his "party" will face serious, if not insurmountable, problems without Kocharyan. Only open fools can go to open political cooperation with a criminal in any  elections. In addition, I assume that Mr. Tsarukyan is not at all reluctant to get rid of his former, and  perhaps, current "ortah" (business partner - Ed.). I apologize, but I specifically refer to this anti-state phenomenon with the appropriate Turkish wording  

Recently one of the financiers highly respected in Armenia guessed  that for the victory in the upcoming parliamentary elections which in is case is  the bribing of voters and the authorities controlling elections, Kocharyan will have enough to spend 2 out of 4 billions of dollars incrimninated to him. And if this is not enough, Moscow will simply raise the price for natural  gas in winter. Please share your forecast. 

I strongly  hope that Kocharian will watch  the election process from behind the prison  bars. If these hopes are not justified, I am still convinced of the intentions of today's authorities to do everything possible to avoid the illegal impact of money and administrative resources on the result of the elections. Thus, the material resources lent by Kocharyan, at most, can serve the cause of air pollution by the selling press and fakes from social networks. If, of course, all these funds by that time have not been legally returned to the state budget. The factor and influence of the Kremlin is a separate topic of discussion, however, in the case of Kocharyan, I am inclined again to assert that in such a situation only a fool can voluntarily relate his name and rating to this criminal. 

By the way, judging by the recent statements of Robert Kocharyan, he obviously tries to create an image of a sole  defender of Russian interests in Armenia, as Serzh Sargsyan did 10 years ago. Nikol Pashinyan has already managed to characterize such efforts on August 17, in general, as vain and groundless. What is the probability of Kocharyan's successful "Russian card" playing? 

Drawing a "Russian card" for Kocharyan is one of the ways to defend against justice. Obviously, it is mean and betrayal to appeal to external forces, to try to involve them in the internal affairs of their own country with the aim of solving their own miserable problems. On the other hand, I do not think that the independent director of the Russian AFK Sistema, Kocharyan, in itself has at least any minor  value for the  Kremlin. And, as an instrument of interference in the internal affairs of Armenia, he is too much  compromised. Therefore, even in the infamous statement of the RF Foreign Minister Lavrov, the main focus was not on Kocharyan, but on the fact of Khachaturov being the Secretary General of the CSTO.

The only charge brought against Kocharian is the overthrow of the constitutional order in 2008. Meanwhile, according to his opponents, the years of his presidency were remembered on October 27, with a mass of never disclosed scandalous  murders, r the deal "Property in exchange for debt," which becamesimply a robbery for Armenia,  the weaning of whole successful businesses from  many entrepreneurs. They say that many of the victims are ready to testify today. What, in your opinion, prevents the authorities from nominating ex-president, for example, accusations of economic crimes? 

I have no answer to this question, I can only express the hope that the Special Investigation Service has a clear plan for future action. A plan in which the stages of the investigation mentioned by you and other crimes are necessarily involved. We also know that on the way to establishing justice and punishing those responsible for injustice, there are great difficulties due to the imperfection of existing laws and the sad state of the existing judicial system. This is the reason for the decision of the Prime Minister to take the path of establishing transitional justice bodies. In my opinion, this is definitely an expected and welcomed step. It is not for nothing that the mention of Nikol Pashinyan about transitional justice led to such a stir in the camp of robbers of Armenia.