Forecast: The indicator of the effectiveness of the meeting of the  Presidents of Russia and Azerbaijan will be Karabakh

ArmInfo. The indicator of the effectiveness of the meeting of the Presidents of Russia and Azerbaijan will be the development of the situation around Nagorno-Karabakh and the problems of the Transcaucasian regional security. Such an opinion was expressed by ArmInfo Russian analyst Sergey Markedonov, commenting on the meeting of Vladimir Putin with Ilham Aliyev held in Sochi on July 21.

"In July, a reconciliation of the hours between the presidents took  place and it would be clear in the near future how successful this  reconciliation was." Sochi's special intrigue was added by its  announcement just hours before the meeting. It's hard to imagine that  the decision to meet the presidents was taken spontaneously,  especially against the background of accumulation Obviously for not  one month of the widest range of problems in the relations between  Baku and Moscow, and of course the main topic of Sochi discussions  was the unsettled Karabakh conflict, "he said.

The analyst believes that the increase in rates in Karabakh is  fraught with a thawing of the conflict, accompanied by an escalation  of the confrontation directly on the Armenian-Azerbaijani state  border. This, in his forecasts, against the backdrop of a lack of  guarantees for the common positions of Russia and its allies in the  Collective Security Treaty Organization and especially the Eurasian  Economic Union, will put the Kremlin in front of additional  challenges. Escalation is also fraught with the destruction of  negotiating formats and the search for new ones, in which no one  guarantees Moscow a privileged place. This, in his opinion, is the  reason for Russia's desire to keep the situation at least under  control.  Noting the supply of Russian arms to Azerbaijan as the most  difficult issue of bilateral cooperation, Markedonov stressed that  Moscow views this as an advantageous business, and Yerevan links  military aggravations around Karabakh with the supply of Russian  weapons to Azerbaijan. The last supply of arms from the Russian  Federation is actively piaritising, presenting them as evidence of  Moscow's desire to resolve the Karabakh conflict in the interests of  Baku.

According to the analyst, this is very far from reality, however, in  the information campaigns, no one is really after the truth.  Therefore, the Ministry of Defense of Azerbaijan hastened to inform  the media that "a large batch of modern weapons arrived in Baku at  the end of June will be sent to the front zone in the near future."

"However, in addition to the active public relations of Baku, some  Russian representatives are willingly and unwillingly playing along,  and this is despite the fact that, being interested in the  development of integration ties through the CSTO and the EEA, not to  mention the bilateral ties in the field of defense and security,  Seeks to get away from the tight binding of the military business to  escalations in Karabakh, "the analyst summed up.