ArmInfo. The report of International Crisis Team does not contain any clarification on the difference between the war and the tension. Such an opinion was stated to ArmInfo by Alexander Iskandaryan, the Director of Institute for Caucasus.
On June 2 the International Crisis Group published a report on 40 pages entitled as Karabakh sky is covered by clouds of war. According to IGG experts, the sides of Karabakh conflict are closer to war than ever during 20 years passed since the cease fire agreement was reached. They think also that two key countries of the region - Russia and Turkey - will be involved in the conflict as well.
"The analytical part of the report properly reflect the growth of violence in the region in general, and the higher level of escalations probability. But there is an absolute lack of proof base in respect to the high risks of new war stated in the report. And to make a conclusion regarding the possibility of new war based only on qualitative and quantitative growth of escalations is wrong," the political expert thinks. At the same time Iskandaryan thinks that the detailed analysis of the parties military-technical balance dynamics may lead to a quite opposite conclusion, according to which the threat of large scale war is now less than a year ago. According to the expert estimates, the thesis of Russian and Turkish participation in this war works for that same war risks decrease.
"After all, I simply cannot understand how the expert make a conclusion on war probability based just on the growth of tension at the contact line. War and tension are quite different things, because there are quite another preconditions, resources and decision making level needed to start it. Which is not available today," he thinks.
At the same time the political expert considers the growth of tension as possible but not so probabale, because such a strategy will cost much to Azerbaijan, which has spent about USD 20-30 bln during recent 5-6 years.
I could suppose that if Baku really were intended to start a war, it should begin from the combat actions I April 2016. But Azerbaijani power did not go for that, and that is never going to happen now, without any preconditions for large scale war," the political expert summarized.