Expert: The voter will not orient due to promises as much as due to  how much was done or missed

ArmInfo.The ruling Republican Party presented a pre-election program, in fact, devoid of quantitative specifics, it is without numbers and facts. The reason  for this is that the authorities are well aware that the voter, when  making a choice, will be guided not so much by the predicted numbers  or promises of growth as on the basis of what was done or missed by  the RPA during its reign. Atom Margaryan, Associate Professor of the  Department of Economic Theory of ASEU, Candidate of Economic  Sciences, stated this on March 13 in Yerevan, commenting on the  presented programs of political forces participating in the  pre-electoral parliamentary race.

According to expert, the RPA program echoes the previous government's  program of activities, which is "not entirely logical". "The program  of activities should flow from the electoral program, and not vice  versa", he said, but this, he said, is a subjective factor, it has a  completely logical explanation, since the pre- electoral emphasis is  placed on the personality of the prime minister as a "charismatic  leader". The focus is the same - investment, stimulating the business  environment, fighting corruption and reducing poverty in the country.  "The program is quite realistic. Not putting an artificially high bar  and promising to provide 3.2% growth in 2017, 4-5% in 2018, it is  quite possible to achieve growth of 5-6% or more by the end of the  five-year plan", he said.

According to Margaryan, the future government will be a coalition  including RPA and ARFD. Currently, the ARF program is not enlightened  by numbers. The only thing the expert stressed is the bringing the  minimum amount of pensions into line with the minimum consumption  basket.  

In contrast, the programs of "Free Democrats" and "Tsarukyan" Bloc  have specifics in the context of numbers and expectations. "They both  promise 6.5-7% economy growth in 2017. I consider the given bar to be  a hard-to-reach", he stated. According to the expert, a 0.2% growth  in 2016 indicates a period of recession or stagnation in the Armenian  economy during the past year. Under these conditions, when there is  no prospect of lifting sanctions from Russia in the foreseeable  future and a complete lifting of sanctions from Iran, and lack of  expectations in terms of appreciation of oil prices, in an attempt to  ensure a 6-7% growth in trying to attract hard-to-reach and expensive  credit funds for Armenia only inexpedient, but also dangerous. At the  same time, the economic component of the "Free Democrats" program, in  his opinion, will become a cornerstone for the future government, and  the position of the "Tsarukyan" Bloc on the release of SMEs from  taxation having turnover up to 60 million for 3 years deserves  attention and application.   

In general, as Margaryan noted, despite the long-term program  modifications, the job is an ungrateful one because of the negative  external shocks and high level of turbulence in global economy, the  "Free Democrats" and "Elk" Bloc programs include not only short-term  and mid-term development. "Elk", for example, is highlighted by the  proposed long-term institutional changes", the expert said. The  programs of the "Elk" bloc, however, the economist believes are  high-tech. "It provides a clear program for the development of the  country's military-industrial complex and it is no coincidence that  its key point is to raise the salaries of servicemen", he noted.  

"The Armenian Revival" proposes to set a maximum bar for the  provision of agricultural loans in 10% of which 5% will be  compensated by the state budget, which is also somewhat realistic",  Margaryan said. But, at the same time, in his opinion, having offered  to freeze the accumulative pension system, it is necessary to take  into account that we are deprived of the resource for subsidizing  such loans.

What about the Congress-People's Party of Armenia and ORO, as the  expert considers, ORO is viewing the ways of economic development in  details by increasing the level of education. The Congress-People's  Party of Armenia program of friendly neighboring and of good will  which proposes to 55% of saving the military expenditures in order to  direct them to new jobs. "But the question is how to do it. Since at  the moment it is difficult and almost impossible", he said. 

To note, Sunday, March 5, 2017, in accordance with national  legislation in the Republic of Armenia, a campaign began. It will  last 26 days. April 1, 2017 in the Republic of Armenia is a day of  silence, and on April 2 the Parliamentary elections will be held. 9  political forces participate in elections.