Arminfo.info



 Monday, November 7 2016 16:59
David Stepanyan

Ruben Shugaryan: The time has come for settlement of Karabakh conflict based on Responsibility to Protect and Remedial Recognition norms

Ruben Shugaryan: The time has come for settlement of Karabakh conflict based on Responsibility to Protect and Remedial Recognition norms

In an interview with ArmInfo, Ruben Shugaryan, former deputy foreign minister of Armenia, former Armenian Ambassador to the U.S., Professor at the U.S.  Tufts University's Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, shares his views about the Armenian policy towards the Karabakh conflict settlement following the April aggression of Azerbaijan. He also speaks of the latest changes in the international law, and substantiates the need to adjust Armenia’s foreign policy and national security doctrine to the global, geopolitical trends.

 

You had worked at the Armenian Foreign Ministry for a long time. Would you outline the real limits of possible concessions of the Karabakh conflict parties on the path to the settlement?  

 

I think the Karabakh problem has undergone certain evolution. In the early 1990s the key achievement of Armenia was internationalization of the intermediary efforts in the conflict settlement process. Unlike Georgia that "had two and a half conflicts on its territory", we were able to put the Karabakh peace process under the OSCE auspices. Over the past few years, the process has inter alia seen failures and disappointments. However, at that time we managed to create a negotiation format and to institutionalize the entire negotiation practice by balancing it through the presence of three permanent members of the UN Security Council - the United States, France, and Russia. Moreover, today the Karabakh problem is the only platform, where the U.S. and Russia are still cooperating somehow. We should understand that amid the complicated relations between the big countries, they always need one or two issues to cooperate on.  This allows them to rise to more or less digestible level of discussion of more global issues. Therefore, the US and Russia also consider the Karabakh problem as a toehold for creation of future formats. Armenian diplomacy has always tried to find a compromise in the U.S.- Russia relations to prevent the Karabakh problem from turning into a stumbling block between Washington and Moscow. As for France, the representative of the European Union, it always represents itself whatever the outcome.    

                           

Do you think the “April war” unleashed by Azerbaijan has brought more tangible changes and prospects to the negotiation process?

 

After the April war the settlement process has undergone quite tangible transformations. If prior to April the whole process had been based on certain principles, for example "Madrid" principles, in April Azerbaijan stepped across the dangerous line. Right after that Armenia on the highest level started to voice the possibility of recognizing Artsakh. In my opinion, the issue of recognition is rather complicated, given our participation in the negotiation process, one of the final goals of which is to determine the status of Artsakh. Azerbaijan regularly attempts to present the Karabakh conflict as a religious one and transfer it from the OSCE to the UN format. It was especially obvious during the April events when duplicating the ISIS's actions Baku was trying to play the card of religion and Islamic solidarity. I can point out a lot of similarities between today's Azerbaijan and the ISIS, for instance, the targeted violent actions by Azerbaijani military men against civilians in Artsakh.

 

Was it done deliberately? What was it aimed at?

 

It was aimed at frightening and sending a certain alarm to other countries. At the negotiations, Armenia needs to present not the facts of the conflict but its changed essence, which became evident in April when Azerbaijan overstepped all the possible moral and ethical lines. This was also done before April – Baku glorified Ramil Safarov, Ilham Aliyev threatened to shoot down the civil planes intending to land in Stepanakert Airport. The new international norm ‘Responsibility to Protect’ is a consensus solution presented by Kofi Annan and developed later by President of International Crisis Group Gareth John Evans. Another term 'Remedial Recognition' has recently become quite popular in the political language, the meaning of which is recognition, sovereignty and secession for survival. Today the issue of Karabakh should not be discussed within the principles of territorial integrity or people's right to self-determination. After Azerbaijan's April aggression, this issue has become an issue of physical survival for Karabakh people. By the way, Kosovo was recognized for the sake of survival, as after "Kosovo Liberation Army" was defeated by Serbs the international community came to the conclusion that there is no other solution. The same did not happen in Karabakh as the NKR Defense Army won Azerbaijan. It was the victory of defending Karabakh people against the aggressor Azerbaijan that has led to a paradoxical situation and maintenance of status quo till today.

 

In other words, have the aggressor and the victim swapped places especially in the light of Baku's regular claims about "one million of refugees and 20% of occupied territories"?

 

Certainly, they have. Due to the April aggression and Baku's intentionally uncovered threats, which were prevented only due to unprecedented consolidation of Armenian people, Yerevan has the chance to put things in the right place. The settlement process should remain within the OSCE, but the focuses should be shifted according to the international norm of "Remedial Recognition". I think that today the time has come to present Armenia's foreign policy regarding Karabakh in the humanitarian context.

 

Should Armenia be the first to officially recognize Artsakh in order to successfully put Remedial Recognition in practice?

 

I do not rule out Armenia's recognition of Artsakh under certain circumstances, but I think the recognition should not be the result of patriotic emotions of various political forces. Certainly, it is necessary to prepare for recognition and it is necessary to have the entire relevant legal package for that. It is also necessary to prepare certain countries for that. There are prerequisites for such recognition in many countries, even in the United States, though they are not at the federal level. Seven US states have already recognized Artsakh. This figure is not small. The recognition does not only irritate Azerbaijan, but also contains a message to the US Government. As regards Europe, France has a balanced approach within the OSCE. I think much can be done in Germany, where the situation has tangibly changed after the recognition of the Armenian Genocide, as well as in Scandinavian and small European countries, which give high priority to humanitarian issues. By recognizing the Genocide, any country subconsciously admits a possible balanced line in the Karabakh issue. In this light, Armenia itself should decide to which of these two issues to give higher priority. I think Armenia's key problem to be resolved is the Karabakh problem, especially with a view to prevent a new war. At the same time, it is necessary to take steps in the South American countries as well, for instance, Uruguay, Argentina, etc.

 

Germany’s example makes us think about the reasons preventing our lobby from changing priorities…

 

I think the Armenian lobby should change its priorities first of all following serious consultations with the Armenian Government. Lobbying is quite a delicate issue, but it is possible to change the list of priorities. We should be realists and we should understand that today it is impossible to raise the issue of the NKR recognition at the US Congress. At the same time, it is certainly possible to raise the issue of remedial recognition of Nagorno- Karabakh's right to self-determination, especially given that this issue completely fits into the current situation around Karabakh. This should be well thought out and this needs a serious job, including recommendations from Armenia.

 

The issue of cession of Artsakh territories is still relevant today. Today it is supplemented by the issue of deployment of Russian peacekeepers in the conflict zone and final conservation of the conflict without any status determination. Does this scenario meet Armenia’s interests and first of all the Karabakh people? What threats is it fraught with?  

 

Why Russian peacekeepers?

 

Russia has been strongly insisting on it.

 

Russia's intention to deploy its own peacekeepers in Karabakh does not mean at all that Russia will manage to do that. In my point of view, the settlement plan, which might work in 1998 cannot be used now and not only because the situation has changed. What I have always been concerned over in all the "Madrid", "Prague" and "Kazan" principles is not so much ceding territories as the issue of holding a referendum without defining its exact date. The issue of referendum is quite formal given that Azerbaijan's Constitution envisages its holding exclusively on the entire of its territory. There is a tendency of changing the term referendum with the term plebiscite in the negotiation process. This is absolutely unacceptable because the latter lacks the legal force of the referendum.

 

The publicized negotiation agenda on Karabakh suggests an impression that the negotiations will end up with cession of the districts and deployment of peacekeepers while everything else will be put off for an indefinite term…

 

I hope this impression will turn out to be wrong, but I cannot state the opposite for sure. I can only say that deployment of peacekeepers may be possible only when the exact schedule of settlement all the issues included in the negotiation agenda is developed. At the same time, deployment of peacekeepers of not only Russia but any other country is inadmissible, especially at the current stage. Our main mistake is the opinion that there should be certain limits for our position, whereas our position should be very flexible, in conformity to geopolitical changes. In 1998 we were dictating from the stronger side, but now that Azerbaijan tries to become that stronger side, we should radically change our position on Nagorno Karabakh…

 

By retrieving the role of the aggression victim due to Azerbaijan’s efforts…

 

Exactly. In the South Ossetian conflict Russia has applied in a unilateral manner the international standard of "Responsibility to Protect". And it is obvious that Moscow possesses a certain logical resource for justification of this position, though Russia didn't reach total adjudication like, for instance, Kosovo did. Russia tried to present the situation around Crimea in the same manner, but faced a total fiasco. Therefore, Armenia should stand back from the stereotypes and fears that by changing its stand on Nagorno Karabakh, Armenia could appear as unprincipled. We should understand that there should be a compromise anyway and that it is impossible to reach it without giving anything. At the same time, the main goal of Armenia should be to ensure independence of Nagorno Karabakh and its compulsory common border with Armenia, not only through the Lachin District - taking into consideration the expansion of possible shelling of the highway linking Armenia to Artsakh.

 

Is the prospect of a consensus on Karabakh an advantage or disadvantage for the Armenian sides?

 

The Nagorno Karabakh problem should be resolved by the two opposing sides, not by any mediators. Armenia and Azerbaijan should clearly understand that the settlement of the problem fully meets their own interests. I always get very much surprised when reading interviews form Armenia, comprising statements that the Nagorno Karabakh problem is already settled and the official settlement is something that we don't need at all. But the things are not like that. In the National Security Doctrine of Armenia, which, should be updated time to time by the way, Azerbaijan is mentioned everywhere. Meanwhile, in the unpublished part of the Azerbaijani Doctrine, Armenia, as a threat, holds only the third place, because Iran and Russia are much more serious threats for Azerbaijan than Armenia. That testifies to the existence of strategic thinking in Azerbaijan, while Armenia stays at the same level. Our Doctrine is written pretty well and professionally, but it is outmoded and we need to change it. Anyway, we should have two doctrines - close and open. Just to be on the safe side.

READ ALL COMMENTS

Манвел
Весьма неплохо, но думаю, что будет еще лучше Главное найти подходящих интервьюируемых.

POST A COMMENT
Input digits     

News
AraratBank Initiates a Panel Discussion on AI and LeadershipAraratBank Initiates a Panel Discussion on AI and Leadership
Opinion: Zurabishvili`s comments on Lori`s ownership viewed as a  response to Javakheti Armenians` election lossOpinion: Zurabishvili`s comments on Lori`s ownership viewed as a  response to Javakheti Armenians` election loss
Fast Shift has joined Idram`s open QR infrastructureFast Shift has joined Idram`s open QR infrastructure
Armenian weightlifter wins gold at European championship Armenian weightlifter wins gold at European championship 
Yerevan to host international conference entitled Yerevan to host international conference entitled "The Path to Social  Justice: Decent Work"
Yerevan hosting Month of European Cinema Yerevan hosting Month of European Cinema 
Armenia`s rep travels to Hague to participate hearing of Armenia v.  Azerbaijan caseArmenia`s rep travels to Hague to participate hearing of Armenia v.  Azerbaijan case
Armenian MPs apply to CC to defend pensioners from Artsakh Armenian MPs apply to CC to defend pensioners from Artsakh 
Donald Trump voiuces support to Artsakh Armenians in telephone talk  with Aram I Donald Trump voiuces support to Artsakh Armenians in telephone talk  with Aram I 
New Force party leader starts signature-collection campaign against  fare rise New Force party leader starts signature-collection campaign against  fare rise 
NOA club calls for resolving problem involving FFA president NOA club calls for resolving problem involving FFA president 
Experts to uncover the secret of the monumental and three-dimensional  Urartian statue found on Garibin TepeExperts to uncover the secret of the monumental and three-dimensional  Urartian statue found on Garibin Tepe
Alexander Lazaryan wins gold at European Youth Championship  in  PolandAlexander Lazaryan wins gold at European Youth Championship  in  Poland
Activist: Armenian authorities are using the police to enforce  dictatorshipActivist: Armenian authorities are using the police to enforce  dictatorship
Expert: It would be naive to expect that the Turkish-Azerbaijani  tandem will allow any significant national programs in ArmeniaExpert: It would be naive to expect that the Turkish-Azerbaijani  tandem will allow any significant national programs in Armenia
Armenian football clubs issue statements regarding resignation of AFF  leadership Armenian football clubs issue statements regarding resignation of AFF  leadership 
Armenia, Azerbaijani border delimitation commissions hold 10th  meeting Armenia, Azerbaijani border delimitation commissions hold 10th  meeting 
Armenia MIA issuing new temporary protection certificates for  citizens of ArtsakhArmenia MIA issuing new temporary protection certificates for  citizens of Artsakh
New and modern. Arabkir branch of IDBank reopenedNew and modern. Arabkir branch of IDBank reopened
Protest against UN building in Yerevan demanding release of Armenian  prisoners in Azerbaijani jailsProtest against UN building in Yerevan demanding release of Armenian  prisoners in Azerbaijani jails
Armenian Deputy FM holds meeting with Baroness CoxArmenian Deputy FM holds meeting with Baroness Cox
Large U.S. delegation to participate in COP29Large U.S. delegation to participate in COP29
Armenia s human rights defender responds to detention of nine  opposition members Armenia s human rights defender responds to detention of nine  opposition members 
Converse Bank starts initial placement of the next AMD, USD bonds in  amount of AMD 5 billion, $5 millionConverse Bank starts initial placement of the next AMD, USD bonds in  amount of AMD 5 billion, $5 million
Monument to of People`s Artist of Armenia Yervand Manaryan unveiled  in YerevanMonument to of People`s Artist of Armenia Yervand Manaryan unveiled  in Yerevan
Armenia to host next United Nations Biodiversity Conference Armenia to host next United Nations Biodiversity Conference 
Armenian premier persistently follows way of reconfiguring national  identity - Russian expertArmenian premier persistently follows way of reconfiguring national  identity - Russian expert
Bayramov: Serious progress made in peace talks with ArmeniaBayramov: Serious progress made in peace talks with Armenia
French ambassador visits Vorotan village French ambassador visits Vorotan village 
Turkologist: With the help of a false bait to establish Turkologist: With the help of a false bait to establish "peace",  Turkey will achieve complete dismantling of Armenian statehood
Armenian Armed Forces reserve officers can rejoin service without  losing their military pensionArmenian Armed Forces reserve officers can rejoin service without  losing their military pension
Dashnaktsakan: Armenian authorities` refusal to recognize Armenian  Genocide is expectedDashnaktsakan: Armenian authorities` refusal to recognize Armenian  Genocide is expected
Opposition factions Opposition factions "I have the honor" and "Hayastan" call for urgent  meeting to discuss Armenian prisoners of war in Baku
Learn to save. World Savings Day with Idram JuniorLearn to save. World Savings Day with Idram Junior
Armenia is no more Armenia - expert Armenia is no more Armenia - expert 
Armenia to continue developing relations with Russia - MFAArmenia to continue developing relations with Russia - MFA
Dynamic dialogue between Armenia, Turkiye - Armenian FMDynamic dialogue between Armenia, Turkiye - Armenian FM
Amendments to election code aimed at reproducing incumbent regime in  Armenia - Avetik Chalabyan Amendments to election code aimed at reproducing incumbent regime in  Armenia - Avetik Chalabyan 
Peaceful environment round Armenia primarily implies rapprochement  with Azerbaijan - Armenian FMPeaceful environment round Armenia primarily implies rapprochement  with Azerbaijan - Armenian FM
Awards ceremony of Science Week at Museum of CommunicationsAwards ceremony of Science Week at Museum of Communications
Not only CIS leaders to be invited to jubilee Victory Parade in  MoscowNot only CIS leaders to be invited to jubilee Victory Parade in  Moscow
Armenia to purchase Su-30MKI Flanker-H fighter from India Armenia to purchase Su-30MKI Flanker-H fighter from India 
Astana to host meeting of CSTO constituent bodies Astana to host meeting of CSTO constituent bodies 
Women must be involved in decision-making process - NA vice-speaker Women must be involved in decision-making process - NA vice-speaker 
Israeli regime used US-controlled airspace in Iraq to attack Iran -  General StaffIsraeli regime used US-controlled airspace in Iraq to attack Iran -  General Staff
Narek Mkrtchyan is the winner of the European Youth Weightlifting  Championships in PolandNarek Mkrtchyan is the winner of the European Youth Weightlifting  Championships in Poland
Retired officers may also be recruited into the Armenian Armed ForcesRetired officers may also be recruited into the Armenian Armed Forces
A Freudian slip?: Arayik Harutyunyan refers to new Minister of  Justice as a member of the ruling political teamA Freudian slip?: Arayik Harutyunyan refers to new Minister of  Justice as a member of the ruling political team
Arayik Harutyunyan avoids answering if Armenian prisoners` return is  a prerequisite for Armenia`s participation in COP29Arayik Harutyunyan avoids answering if Armenian prisoners` return is  a prerequisite for Armenia`s participation in COP29
Head of Armenia`s Investigative Committee says he cannot respond to  every slander Head of Armenia`s Investigative Committee says he cannot respond to  every slander 
Georgian Prosecutor`s Office launches investigation into alleged  election rigging, summons President Salome ZurabishviliGeorgian Prosecutor`s Office launches investigation into alleged  election rigging, summons President Salome Zurabishvili
Need for reducing staff, expenses - minister Need for reducing staff, expenses - minister 
Neither US presidential candidate has earned ANCA`s endorsement -  ANCANeither US presidential candidate has earned ANCA`s endorsement -  ANCA
Armenia`s government highlights solution to national minorities`  problems Armenia`s government highlights solution to national minorities`  problems 
UWC Dilijan and UNDP Armenia co-host Armenian Local Conference of  Youth Ahead of COP 29 UWC Dilijan and UNDP Armenia co-host Armenian Local Conference of  Youth Ahead of COP 29 
Azerbaijan s continued occupation of large swathes of Armenia is also  a human tragedy - Olivier DecottigniesAzerbaijan s continued occupation of large swathes of Armenia is also  a human tragedy - Olivier Decottignies
Srbuhi Galyan to be appointed Armenia`s minister of justiceSrbuhi Galyan to be appointed Armenia`s minister of justice
International Theatre Acoustic School - Laboratory under the  direction of Viktor Ryzhakov  launched in YerevanInternational Theatre Acoustic School - Laboratory under the  direction of Viktor Ryzhakov  launched in Yerevan
A number of French cities to mark Sergey Parajanov`s 100th  anniversaryA number of French cities to mark Sergey Parajanov`s 100th  anniversary
Artsakh Union: Only 30 families from Artsakh applied for  participation in Armenian government`s housing programArtsakh Union: Only 30 families from Artsakh applied for  participation in Armenian government`s housing program
Read more



Commented