Forecast: Prospects of Russia`s geopolitical shift to Turkey and  Azerbaijan insignificant 

ArmInfo.Prospects of Russia's geopolitical shift to Turkey and Azerbaijan are insignificant, unless there are force-majeure circumstances, says Russian political analyst Sergey Markedonov.  

Talking to ArmInfo, he said Vladimir Putin's October 10 visit to  Istanbul was a response to Recep Erdogan's visit to Saint Petersburg  in August 2016. "Azerbaijan's president, the strategic ally of Turkey  and important partner of Russia, participated in the meeting, which  gave additional importance to it.  Normally, after such meetings, it  is supposed that new configurations are emerging in the Middle East  and Transcaucasia.  Naturally, any visit of Russian officials to  Turkey and Azerbaijan like the discussion of economic and security  issues arouses concern of Yerevan," he said.

After the April flare-up in Karabakh and the July events in Yerevan  when Sasna Tsrer group seized a police compound demanding the  president to leave, Yerevan's concerns are justified. These concerns  are doubly justified amid the rumors on "Lavrov's Plan" and  re-orientation of the Russian policy to the Turkic world.  Markedonov  believes that all this is backed by the opponents of the pro-Russian  foreign policy vector of Armenia and the information experts,  publicists supporting Azerbaijan.  

In fact, the political analyst says, such reorientation of Russia is  unlikely, as the Russian diplomacy prefers status quo and reactive  behavior.  Russia makes tough response only when the balance  favorable to Moscow is broken, Markedonov says, bringing such  examples as Mikheil Saakashvili in Georgia, the foreign interference  in the Middle East, 'second Maidan' in Kiev. 

The analyst characterizes the Armenian-Russian relations as relations  of asymmetric allies.  It is necessary to take into account the  negative response of the small Armenia having many diasporas and  lobbying organizations in U.S. and EU. Markedonov believes it  important that Yerevan can influence the integrity of EEU and CSTO  directly or indirectly considering that other leading partners of  Moscow can perceive that specifically.  

"Russia's relations with Turkey and Azerbaijan from Black and Caspian  Seas to Mediterranean Sea are quite important". However, constructive  relations between Russia, Turkey and Azerbaijan should be developed  not hindering other positive results, acting rationally,  pragmatically and selectively, not limiting to Eurasian brotherhood  and traditional values, the analyst summarized.