Opinion: European Commission representative gives sobering assessment of Armenia`s European prospects

ArmInfo. The statement by European Commission spokesperson Paula Pinho on September 7, that it is premature to talk about Armenia gaining visa-free travel with the European Union by 2029, is perhaps the most sobering of the recent official assessments of Armenia's European prospects. This was stated by former head of the State Revenue Committee and representative of the Wings of Unity party, David Ananyan.

Ananyan recalled that Pinho, in a conversation with journalists, not only stated that it was premature to set any timeframe for visa-free travel for Armenia, but also did not provide a substantive answer to the question of whether the requirement to establish a visa regime for Russian citizens in Armenia is being discussed as part of visa liberalization.

"This is not a trivial matter." The 2029 target is a political goal presented by Nikol Pashinyan, not a promise from Brussels. The official European Commission report clearly states that there is no possibility or practice of automatically implementing this process. Armenia is still in the first stage, specifically the legislative and institutional one. Numerous requirements exist in the areas of biometric documents, border and migration management, anti-corruption, citizenship, and fundamental rights. Once these conditions are met, a proposal should be submitted to the European Commission, and the final decision will be made by the European Parliament and the Council of the EU," the politician noted. He further added that the readmission protocol signed in Riga on September 7 by the foreign ministers of Armenia and Latvia does not constitute a visa waiver. Ananyan noted that this document defines the procedure for returning to Armenia individuals residing in the EU without authorization. In other words, Armenia continues to make measurable commitments, while the timing of the final benefits remains uncertain.

"Does this mean Europe is rejecting us? Absolutely not. The EU is offering Armenia a €270 million resilience and growth program, an expected €2.5 billion investment portfolio, €30 million in non-lethal assistance, a support package of over €50 million after the lifting of Russian restrictions, two-year temporary customs exemptions for Armenian goods, and so on. In terms of comparison with reality, the picture is more than revealing." In January-July 2026, Armenia's exports to Russia amounted to approximately $1.44 billion, and to the entire EU, approximately $592 million. This means that even taking into account Russian restrictions, the Russian market is more than twice the volume of exports to the EU," the former head of the State Revenue Committee of Armenia noted.

The politician further noted that today Armenia is not a candidate country for EU membership; it has not even submitted an official application for membership, does not have an approved visa liberalization deadline, and has not received contractual guarantees.

security from the EU.

According to the politician, the danger for Armenia lies not in choosing a European direction, but in the wrong sequence of processes: bearing the political and economic costs of confrontation with Russia now and expecting the emergence of alternative opportunities in Europe in the future, but conditionally and without a guaranteed deadline.

"The question is not a simple choice of 'Russia or Europe.'" The question is whether Armenia is reducing its dependence in its own national interests by creating alternatives in advance, or whether it is first severing existing ties in exchange for future, unguaranteed promises. The reality is that Europe isn't closing its doors to Armenia, but it's also not guaranteeing entry and isn't yet taking full responsibility for a possible break with Russia. It's offering a gradual, conditional, and controlled rapprochement," he added. Ananyan is confident that responsible government policy must receive measurable responses from Brussels before taking irreversible steps: regarding deadlines, market access, a financial transition package, energy security, and political guarantees. Otherwise, he says, European integration could become not a well-thought-out strategy for Armenia, but an adventurous and costly wait.