Political analyst: Pashinyan- Putin  phone call confirms deepening  strategic rift between Yerevan and Moscow

ArmInfo.  The recent phone call between Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Russian  President Vladimir Putin did not signal a resolution to the ongoing  crisis in Armenian-Russian relations, but rather confirmed that the  strategic differences between the parties continue to deepen. That  assessment was shared on Facebook by Suren Surenyants, a political  scientist and leader of the Democratic Alternative party.

Surenyants noted that the conversation, initiated by Pashinyan on  July 27, marked their first official contact since the June  parliamentary elections. According to the analyst, the timing was  politically significant, coming amid heightened bilateral tensions  and economic pressures stemming from Russian restrictions on Armenian  exports.

"It is noteworthy that the conversation with Putin was preceded by  telephone calls between Pashinyan and German Chancellor Friedrich  Merz (July 22) and French President Emmanuel Macron (July 25). Since  contacts with European partners apparently failed to yield results  that could mitigate restrictions on the Russian market, turning to  Moscow became less of a political choice and more of an objective  necessity," the politician believes.

Surenyants recalled that, according to official Yerevan, Pashinyan  raised the issue of restrictions on the export of goods of Armenian  origin, emphasizing that they contradict both the Armenian-Russian  legal framework and the principles of the Eurasian Economic Union  (EAEU), and asked for measures to resolve the issue. However, as the  political scientist noted, the Kremlin's official statement reveals a  completely different set of priorities. "The Russian side once again  placed the issue of Armenia's European integration on the agenda.  Putin reaffirmed the logic of the joint statement adopted on May 29  in Astana by the leaders of four EAEU member states (Belarus,  Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Russia) and emphasized the need to hold a  national referendum in Armenia as soon as possible to determine the  country's strategic course: the European Union (EU) or continued  participation in the EAEU. In response, Pashinyan effectively  acknowledged that the EU accession process is not yet in the  practical stage, noting that holding a referendum will only be  possible if Armenia officially applies for EU membership," Sureniants  noted.

However, as the politician noted, even this cautious stance has not  yielded any tangible results. According to him, no announcements  regarding the lifting or easing of export restrictions have been made  since the telephone conversation. "Furthermore, the Kremlin's  statement didn't even mention economic issues, clearly demonstrating  Moscow's priorities. Another noteworthy circumstance is that this is  yet another instance of Putin not congratulating Pashinyan on his  victory in the parliamentary elections. In interstate relations, such  silence is rarely accidental and, as a rule, contains a political  signal," the politician explained.

According to Surenyants, the content of the telephone conversation  clearly followed the political logic of the April 1 meeting between  Pashinyan and Putin, as well as the statement made in Astana. That  is, as the political scientist clarified, Moscow no longer intends to  tolerate Yerevan's policy of "sitting on two chairs." "Furthermore,  the joint statement adopted in Astana stipulates that by December  2026, the EAEU Intergovernmental Council must submit a report on the  possible consequences of suspending the application of the EAEU  Treaty with respect to Armenia. This is no longer a warning, but a  process with specific deadlines. Thus, the telephone conversation  between Pashinyan and Putin did not mark the beginning of overcoming  the crisis in Armenian-Russian relations. On the contrary, it  confirmed that the strategic differences between the parties continue  to deepen, and economic problems have already become one of the most  noticeable manifestations of this crisis," Surenyants noted. That is,  as the politician noted, Moscow is clearly not prepared to be guided  by Yerevan's economic difficulties or its political clarifications.  "Russia continues to expect from Armenia not assurances, but a clear  and final strategic choice. 'Moscow does not believe in tears.' This  phrase most accurately characterizes the political content of the  Pashinyan-Putin phone call," Surenyants concluded.