Putin: Armenia will lose at least 14% of its GDP if it withdraws the  EAEU

ArmInfo.  According to preliminary expert estimates, Armenia's withdrawal from the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) will lead to a loss of at least 14% of its GDP,  as stated by Russian President Vladimir Putin  during a press  conference, while discussing the benefits of Armenia's membership in  the European Union (EU).

According to Putin, discussions on this issue must only be frank,  sincere, and completely transparent.  "There are no secrets; I  believe everyone should know this. But before that, I would like to  say that the Russian and Armenian peoples have been bound by bonds of  friendship and a special relationship for centuries. I told Armenian  Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan: whatever is good for Armenians is  acceptable and good for Russia. Do as you see fit, based on the  interests of the Armenian people. You are in power, you are  responsible, whatever you decide, that is how it will be. This will  not spoil our humanitarian or political ties. But now we are talking  strictly about economic substances. Everything needs to be  calculated, carefully reviewed, and a decision made. I have already  mentioned this before: the crisis in Ukraine began with attempts to  accede to the EU. We weren't against it, but we said that the  standards were completely different. There are many things that are  simply incompatible today. This doesn't mean we are against it; we  are for it, but it requires time and capital investment," the Russian  president stated. 

It is for this very reason, as Putin noted, that combining the two  (the EAEU and the EU) is virtually impossible today. "And for this  same reason, we will be forced to wind down all of our work—in this  case with Armenia in the economic sphere, particularly within the  framework of integration processes," he emphasized.

Speaking on the benefits of Armenia's membership in the EAEU, Russian  President Vladimir Putin highlighted access to a large and protected  market within the  EAEU, duty-free trade, common technical and  phytosanitary standards, simplified logistics, low energy prices, and  active investment.  In this regard, he noted that, according to the  latest data from the EAEU Development Bank (EDB), accumulated  investments in Armenia total $4.9 billion, with 86% originating from  Russia. Putin emphasized that this figure does not include additional  Russian capital. "After the meeting in Yerevan, our European partners  pledged to invest 2.5 billion euros. How and when these investments  will materialize remains to be seen, but it is still less than $4.9  billion," he said.

Putin also urged to consider the fact that Armenia's withdrawal from  the EAEU would end its participation in the union's free trade  agreements. He warned that this would result in the reinstatement of  full-scale customs controls and duties, the suspension of mutual  recognition for phytosanitary certifications, and a decline in trade  in services, including tourism and transport.

"This also means applying the regulations currently in place for CIS  migrants to workers from Armenia. In other words, they will have to  purchase work patents to operate in Russia, and to secure permanent  residency, they will need to have resided there for at least five  years. There are numerous requirements, and everyone must speak about  this clearly, transparently, and honestly," Putin noted.

He added, "We will also have to revert to a permit-based system for  Armenian road carriers. This is unavoidable, and it is a distinct,  complex area of cooperation. Furthermore, we will have to increase  rail freight tariffs from Russia's domestic rates to those applied to  CIS countries. Beyond that, energy prices will also rise. The  preferences Armenia enjoys today will no longer exist." According to  the Russian president, preliminary expert estimates indicate that  this would result in Armenia losing at least 14% of its GDP.

"Whether that is a lot or a little is another matter. However, all of  this must be weighed carefully. If we look at the last three  years—from 2023 to 2025—Russia's GDP grew by 10.3%, while the EU grew  by 3%, and the EAEU by 11.4%. One bloc generated economic growth,  while the other did not. We would ask our Armenian friends—and the  Prime Minister of Armenia himself has spoken about this—to hold a  referendum on where Armenia should be: in the EAEU or the EU. And we  would request that this be done as soon as possible," Putin  concluded.

Recall, on January 9, 2025, the Armenian government approved a draft  law initiating the process of accession to the European Union,  proposed by the "Eurakve" civic initiative. The draft legislation was  subsequently submitted to parliament, which adopted it in the final  reading on March 26 before forwarding it to the president for  signature. The law was signed on April 4.

Moscow has repeatedly stated that simultaneous membership in both the  Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and the European Union is impossible.  On May 9, 2026, Russian President Vladimir Putin told journalists  that Armenia should decide on its future membership in the EU and the  EAEU "as soon as possible," adding that Russia would be ready to  begin a "civilized divorce" if necessary. Yerevan, for its part,  responded by stating that Armenia would leave the EAEU whenever it  considered such a step necessary.

It should be noted that, according to the RA Statistics Committee,  foreign trade turnover between Armenia and EAEU member states  declined by 36.9% in 2025, totaling just over $8 billion. Export  volumes fell by 5% to $3.2 billion, while imports dropped by 48.5% to  $4.8 billion.

Trade with Russia, Armenia's largest EAEU partner, declined by 38.3%  during the reporting period, amounting to $7.6 billion. At the same  time, trade with Belarus increased by 22.9% to $251.4 million, while  trade with Kazakhstan grew by 6.3% to $115.9 million. Trade turnover  with Kyrgyzstan, however, fell by 23.2% to $11.3 million. Overall,  EAEU countries accounted for 37.5% of Armenia's foreign trade  turnover. In Q1 2026, trade turnover between Armenia and EAEU member  states decreased by 15.6% year- on-year to $1.4 billion. Exports fell  by 6.5% to $685.9 million, amid a 22.6% decline in imports to $722.7  million.