Izvestia: Armenia`s ruling party  retains administrative resources,  high brand recognition, and  significant financial advantage

ArmInfo.  When analyzing the potential outcome of the elections, it is necessary to take into account the specifics of Armenian politics. Even the most unfavorable forecasts for the authorities may fail to materialize: the ruling party still retains administrative resources, high brand recognition, and, according to Izvestia sources, a significant financial advantage. This was  highlighted in an article published yesterday in the Russian  newspaper Izvestia by Elena Sinyavskaya.

According to her, the "Civil Contract" party is currently stronger  than most of its competitors. This is reflected, among other things,  in the amount of funds Pashinyan is allocating to promote the party.  Rumor has it that the figure could exceed $50 million. In this  regard, perhaps only Karapetyan's bloc is capable of competing with  it, although it is spending less on its campaign. "The other parties  compensate for their lack of resources with the personal authority of  their leaders, but so far they can only claim 8-10% of public  support," Artur Avakov, an associate professor of political science  at the State Academic University of Humanities, told Izvestia.

According to the expert, it's too early to talk about Pashinyan's  failure, especially since polling data varies significantly.  Sociologists considered more loyal to the government give "Civil  Contract" around 35% and more, whereas studies more often cited by  the opposition estimate the ruling party's support at around 18- 20%.  However, even by these estimates, "Civil Contract" remains one of the  most popular political forces in the country.

"At the same time," the article notes, "the opposition's main problem  is that none of its parties yet appear capable of forming a  government single-handedly. The "Strong Armenia" bloc is either  closely following the ruling party or lagging behind it by 10-15%.  But even in a more favorable scenario for the opposition, it's more a  matter of strengthening its position in parliament than a guaranteed  change of power."

"However, even if Pashinyan's party wins, a sharp reversal in foreign  policy should not be expected. In the foreseeable future, Armenia  will not join the EU, will not with draw from the EAEU, and will most  likely formally remain a member of the CSTO, although its  participation in the organization may remain frozen.  Yerevan has  neither a viable alternative to its relations with Russia nor any  serious reasons to completely sever them. It's one thing to talk  about a European course, and quite another to restructure the  country's entire security, economic, and logistical systems," Avakov  noted.