Markedonov: There`s a new status quo in the South Caucasus, and  Russia`s exclusive influence is being challenged

ArmInfo.There's a new status quo in the South Caucasus, and Russia's exclusive influence is being challenged, and perhaps this exclusivity has been lost to some extent.  

Sergei Markedonov, PhD in History and leading researcher at the Center for Euro-Atlantic Security at the Institute of International Studies at MGIMO University, Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, made this statement during a  Moscow-Minsk-Yerevan-Tashkent video conference on the topic "Post-Soviet States: Searching for a New Role in a Transforming World."

"We're seeing increased activity from various players and attempts by  the Armenian authorities, as they see it, to hedge risks. Perhaps  these hedging attempts could be justified by saying it's a national  right. However, when you do something, you must understand your  options," Markedonov noted. In this vein, he added that at the end of  2022, when Russia was going through challenging times on the  Ukrainian front, and Armenia itself was also in a difficult  situation, the Armenian leadership considered the Russian Federation  a "fading force."

"That's wonderful, but let's see what the reality is. They say  Armenia wants to join the EU, but is it really being invited?" the  expert noted, adding that the EU doesn't even have a candidacy issue  with Armenia, unlike Georgia, Moldova, or Ukraine. "Let's compare  Armenia's trade turnover with Russia, Armenia's trade turnover with  the Eurasian Economic Union, and Armenia's trade turnover with the  EU. We'll see a clear difference in favor of Russia and the EAEU.  Therefore, I wouldn't say the Armenian opposition's statements are  alarmist at all. They fear that a rupture will lead to extremely  negative consequences," Markedonov noted, listing specific examples  of the benefits the Armenian economy receives from Russian business  activity.  "And when they ask what Russia can give Armenia, Russia  already does so in the form of large-scale economic, trade, and  energy cooperation," Markedonov recalled.

At the same time, the expert highlighted the importance of the  respectful attitude of certain Russian officials toward Armenia.  According to him, it's necessary not only to remind people of  Russia's importance, but also of Russia's own interest in relations  with Armenia. "It's important for Russia and Armenia to be pragmatic  about their relations. They are different today, and they won't be  the same as before. But different doesn't mean hostile. Evolving and  reshaping relations doesn't mean becoming adversaries," Markedonov  added. He also expressed his belief that it would be more beneficial  to keep Armenian-Russian relations discreet at present, to avoid  overreacting in the heat of the moment.

Touching on the upcoming electoral processes in Armenia, the Russian  expert assured that Russia has no allies there. "People often ask:  who is Russia's candidate in Armenia? Armenia is Russia's candidate!   Armenia is important to Russia. The people of Armenia will choose  their own person, whoever they deem necessary. And this is a much  fairer and more correct approach than pointing fingers and saying,  'This is our man.' A much more important approach is one where the  relationship is with the country, not with a specific political  figure," the expert said.