Friday, July 28 2023 15:59

ArmInfo. Where and at what point it was decided that there should be a multi-thousand-strong  Azerbaijani community in Armenia, and the Republic itself should enter into an alliance with Turkey and Azerbaijan. Political observer at the Politeconomy Research Institute, political scientist Beniamin  Matevosyan asks.

He recalled that following the meeting of the Foreign Ministers of  Armenia, Azerbaijan and the Russian Federation, Sergey Lavrov issued  a statement in which it was noted that Baku and Yerevan "are ready to  provide guarantees on a mutual basis for ensuring the rights of  national minorities in their territories." "Lavrov's statement  immediately gave rise to a new round of discussions in Armenia, on  the topic that "Russia is forcing Pashinyan to also bring the  multi-thousand-strong Azerbaijani community to the RA."

There are questions to RF Ministry of Foreign Affairs about "a wagon  and a small cart", and in this case, Russia also chose the path of  not forming a negotiating agenda, but adjusting to what has already  been agreed in the West," the expert stated.  At the same time, the  political scientist believes that, however, a complex of questions  should be dealt with:  At what point and where did the Armenians of  Nagorno-Karabakh become an "ethnic minority", at what point and where  did it become known that the multi-thousand-strong Azerbaijani  community should be resettled in Armenia, at what point and where was  it announced that as a result of these transformations, the RA should  enter into a regional union with Baku and Ankara?

In this vein, he recalled that in 2023, 2 multi-day rounds of  negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan took place in Washington.  He added that following the results of the May round, the American  Voice of America, citing a high-ranking American diplomat, reported  that one of the issues discussed by the parties is "the attitude  towards ethnic minorities in both countries", which concerns the  "rights and security of ethnic minorities."

"In other words, on the Western negotiation track, Nikol Pashinyan  agreed on the resettlement of the multi- thousand-strong Azerbaijani  community in the RA, which a diplomat from the State Department told  about in May.

It is also important that the attitude towards the Armenians of the  NKR as an "ethnic minority in Azerbaijan" was also recorded in May of  this year, which is confirmed by Charles Michel's statement following  the results of the May negotiations between Nikol Pashinyan and Ilham  Aliyev.

The geopolitical reshaping of the region, which is clearly visible  following the results of negotiations on the western platform, also  indicates that the transformation will not end only with Karabakh  being a part of Azerbaijan and the resettlement of tens of thousands  of Azerbaijanis in Armenia, it also includes the formation of a new  regional military-political union of Ankara, Baku and Yerevan,"  Matevosyan believes.  

He added that Louis Bono, the senior adviser of the US State  Department, said during the Washington negotiations: "The United  States is committed to ensuring that the parties regulate their  relations, can live together, and also strengthen economic ties and  even ensure collective security in the region." "Collective security"  implies the formation of a military-political union between Armenia  and Azerbaijan, and since the United States is deprived of the  opportunity "on the ground to quickly coordinate processes" in the  region, Turkey should become the "supervisor" in this union.

It was this agenda of "regionalization" that N. Pashinyan began to  develop immediately after the meeting in Washington: during his  penultimate press conference, he stated that "RA is looking for  guarantees of security in the region," and in his opening speech  during the last press conference he stated on the need to conduct a  "regional non-confrontational policy" and "clarification of the place  and role of the Republic of Armenia in the architecture of the  regional future."

With such formulations, Pashinyan signals precisely that Yerevan is  on the path of forming a temporary union with Turkey and Azerbaijan.

Why "temporary union"? Azerbaijan and Turkey will not miss the  historic chance to "close issues with Armenia" after the Russian  contingent is withdrawn from here," he added.

"However, returning to the last July meeting in Moscow: is it in this  format that Russia sees "stable and long-term peace in the region"  and therefore decided to simply "adjust to the Armenian-Azerbaijani  (actually American) agenda? Yes, of course, if the Russian Federation  leaves Karabakh and Armenia, it will only lose its positions, while  Karabakh and Armenia will most likely be "strangled" in the "Turkish-  Azerbaijani sack", however, the developments in the South Caucasus  will certainly affect the developments in the North Caucasus," summed  up Matevosyan.

It should be noted that following the results of the trilateral  meeting in Moscow, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stated:"  Armenia is aware of the importance of convincing Nagorno-Karabakh  Armenians to hold meetings with Azerbaijani representatives as soon  as possible to coordinate their rights under the relevant legislation  and Azerbaijan's international commitments, including numerous  conventions on the rights of national minorities.  Azerbaijan, acting  on a mutually agreed basis, is also ready to provide the same  guarantees to persons residing on its territory. Armenia is ready to  act likewise regarding the application of these conventions to people  residing in the Republic of Armenia," he said.