Thursday, October 4 2018 14:01

ArmInfo. New political  reality of Armenia is irreversible. A similar point of view is shared  by Director of the Center for Regional Studies, an associate expert  of the "Ukrainian Prism" Foreign Policy Council, Richard Giragosian.

Thus, an Armenian expert in his column in the "European Truth",  analyzing the recent events in Armenia, noted that an unexpected and  dramatic political crisis in the country made the issue of early  elections relevant.

In his conviction, the split in relations between the parliament and  Nikol Pashinyan's government caused a crisis that quickly turned into  open confrontation, as a result of which the "Republican Party",  which previously held the power and still has a majority in the  Armenian parliament, along with MPs from "Prosperous Armenia "and  ARF" Dashnaktsutyun " parties changed the procedure for the  dissolution of parliament and the election of the Prime Minister.

In this light, the political analyst recalled that Armenia in the  past has repeatedly experienced serious crises, from the forced  resignation of former President Levon Ter-Petrosyan to a terrorist  attack on parliament.  "But there is reason to say that the country  again approached a turning point in its political history. For the  Armenian government, these events came as a surprise, especially  given that Prosperous Armenia and Dashnaktsutyun, two parties that  supported the new law, had played a crucial role in May in the  election of Pashinyan to the post of prime minister, supporting his  candidacy in the wake of popular protests. But if you take into  account the high stakes of today's Armenian policy, this step brings  fewer surprises. It gives the former party in power, "Republican  party ", a chance to keep parliament under control and stop the  processes that will lead to a political defeat in case of early  parliamentary elections. This is a desperate step, and the former  ruling coalition has every reason for despair. Recently, they  witnessed a confident victory of Pashinyan's supporters in the  municipal elections in Yerevan, which confirmed the steady popularity  of both the Prime Minister of Armenia and his young government. The  results of these elections have demonstrated how the former political  elite is dying, "Giragosian noted.

At the same time, the expert believes that at least two political  lessons should be drawn from the current parliamentary crisis: first,  all doubts have disappeared that the current Armenian parliament does  not reflect the new political reality and the country needs a new  composition of the representative body, which can only be formed  through new, free and fair elections. "And the second lesson is that  in case of new elections in Armenia, the former pro-government  parties -" Republicans "," Prosperous "and" Dashnaks "- may not even  overcome the passing barrier and not enter the new parliament - they  are too discredited and deeply unpopular. Although, despite the new  political reality, the absence of any real and constructive  opposition will only do harm, because any government needs  constructive criticism and those who are able to hold it accountable  for the policy being pursued. Considering that the Pashinyan  government is an inexperienced and only gaining political maturity,  one-party governance is especially dangerous. Pashinyan, who once in  fact was the only critic of the authorities, knows better than  anybody else how lack of accountability creates a temptation for any  politician, "noted the analyst.

Giragosian is convinced that the current situation creates certain  risks for both the current and the former government. Thus, for  Republicans and their political allies (who have already left the new  government), the fact that they lose political legitimacy, and their  popularity keeps falling, creates a real risk of political demise.  "But there are risks for Pashinyan too, and they are even more  serious. It was planned that the next step in political  transformation of Armenia would be Pashinyan's "technical"  resignation from the post of prime minister, while simultaneously  blocking the nomination of any candidates of his rivals for two  weeks. Under the current legislation, this should start the process  of dissolving parliament and holding extraordinary elections, but now  there is no certainty that Pashinyan's opponents in parliament will  fulfill such a plan. Indeed following this plan of  not nominating  any candidate for the post of prime minister after the government's  resignation, will mean that they have decided to take an  unprecedented action of political suicide, which is unlikely. In case  they nominate a candidacy for prime minister's post, this will make  Pashinyan to mobilize his supporters and again bring the  demonstrators to the streets to complete the Armenian "velvet  revolution", the expert added.

The Armenian analyst believes that the consequences of these  processes are far from being positive and, in fact, there is a  struggle for legitimacy in Armenia. Giragosian noted that for the  government, its legitimacy comes from the "people's mandate", which  determines its popularity, and the strength of street protests.  "And  for the discredited political elite of the past, which has lost  public support due to corruption and the lack of free elections, its  legitimacy is based on imitated democracy through control of  parliament, even if it does not reflect the moods of voters. Despite  the difficult situation, one can state that the new political reality  of Armenia is irreversible. Former government and pro-government  parties are increasingly consistent with the term "former" and with  each step closer to the line, after which only brief references of  them in the political history of the country will remain ", -  concluded the analyst.