Monday, February 27 2017 12:55

ArmInfo. Carey Cavanaugh, Professor of Diplomacy and Conflict Resolution, University of Kentucky, former US Co-Chair of OSCE Minsk Group thinks that the  Trump administration should promote preventive measures to help avoid  violence, deter military action, and engender support for peaceful  resolution of Karabakh conflict.  

In his article published on the website of the US Council on Foreign  Relations, Carey Cavanaugh notes that after the April 2016 events  "the United States, Russia, and France-co-chairs of the Organization  for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) Minsk Group responsible  for mediating the conflict- used diplomacy to halt the violence. They  have been unable, however, to revitalize the peace process".   "Azerbaijan is most likely to use military force to bring the issue  to a head and ultimately seek to change the status quo. Since 2006,  the country has been on an armaments shopping spree, spending over  $22 billion to acquire a formidable arsenal of modern military  equipment that Armenia cannot match," he says, adding that "The  Armenians also have long stated that if they are attacked,  Azerbaijan's energy sector would be an immediate military objective".   "Detectable signs of escalating tensions could include unusual  Azerbaijani military movements and other preparations in anticipation  of offensive operations. In contrast, Armenian threats to strike  Azerbaijan's energy sector would require less visible preparation,"  Cavanaugh stresses.  

At the same time, the expert thinks that the United States could  employ a combination of measures to prevent further escalation should  significant hostilities break out over Nagorno-Karabakh. "The United  States could promote a UN Security Council resolution condemning any  major military action. A secondary option, if known, would be to name  the instigator. Working with partners, the United States would  penalize the party that initiates any major escalation-through public  condemnation and potentially by withdrawing economic assistance or  using sanctions," he says. 

Cavanaugh also emphasizes that the Trump administration should pay  careful attention to developments related to Nagorno-Karabakh "and  act quickly to promote preventive measures to help avoid violence,  deter military action, and engender support for this conflict's  peaceful resolution".

To note, Professor Carey Cavanaugh was Ambassador/Special Negotiator  responsible for conflicts in Eurasia and concurrently U.S. Co-Chair  of the OSCE Minsk Group in 1999-2001. To recall, on Feb 25 night the  Azeri armed forces attempted to mount attacks on the southeastern  (Martuni) and eastern (Akna) sections of the line of contact with the  Artsakh troops by using special equipment and devices for demining.  Due to the video surveillance devices, the forward detachments of the  Defense Army of Artsakh fixed the advancement of the Azeri troops in  both directions and made the adversary retreat.  The latter  retreated, suffering losses. At least two Azeri servicemen were  wounded and the bodies of several Azeri servicemen are in the neutral  zone. The Artsakh side suffered no losses.