ArmInfo. The ceasefire violations and sabotage attacks are the only tool of influence on Artsakh, Armenia, OSCE Minsk Group and the international community and that tool remains in Ilham Aliyev's hands, Stepan Safaryan, Director of the Armenian Institute of International and Security Affairs (AIISA), has told ArmInfo.
"The latest trends in the Karabakh peace process and the stand of the Co-Chairs and Russia, as proved by the statements of Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and ex-Secretary General of CSTO Nikolay Bordyuzha, clearly offer a serious price to Baku, which the latter will have to pay for destabilization of the situation in the region. The same peace process actually points out the unacceptability of maximalist demands of the Azeri leadership," he says.
In this light, the analyst points out the considerable reduction of the threat of Azerbaijan's full-scale military actions in the Karabakh conflict zone. However, given that the fire at the Armenian positions and the sabotage attacks against Armenia and Artsakh are the only way to express Ilham Aliyev's discontent, their threat still exists.
The analyst stresses the need to conduct serious work to suppress this possible scenario. He thinks that the OSCE Minsk Group should force Baku to implement the introduction of investigative mechanisms coordinated by the sides and the mediators.