Many countries to begin to reassess their relations with U.S.  post-factum due to Middle East situation - Russian expert

ArmInfo.  Due to the situation in the Middle East, many countries will begin to reassess their relations with the United States post-factum, including seeking the withdrawal of American bases from their territory. This was stated by  political scientist, American studies expert, and publicist Malek  Dudakov on March 18 during a Moscow-Yerevan video conference on the  topic "The Middle East Crisis and Regional-American Relations."

According to the expert, the current state of affairs indicates that  the United States will likely fail to carry out a regime change  operation in Iran, and President Donald Trump will begin to scale  back his strategy once the depletion of American missiles and the  impact of the global energy crisis are felt. "Although Iran is  currently seeing a rallying of society around the government,  internal contradictions will intensify after the conflict ends. The  economy is in decline, and therefore, after the war, Iran will face  prolonged internal instability. This will, of course, also impact  neighboring countries - Iraq, Pakistan, Afghanistan, and the  Caucasus. The government in Iran will likely survive, but the  consequences will take a long time to resolve, and they will be  long-lasting," Dudakov believes.

At the same time, the political scientist noted, the situation  demonstrates that US influence in the Middle East is being seriously  challenged and has already been partially undermined. "We see images  of burning American bases throughout the Middle East, something not  seen since World War II. I think many countries will reconsider their  relations with the US and even seek the withdrawal of American bases  from their territory, under the pretext that the American side cannot  provide any security guarantees," the expert emphasized.

This, he said, could also weaken the US position in the Transcaucasus  region. "I doubt the Americans will try to deploy anyone to  Transcaucasia. It's also important to consider the domestic political  factor in the US. We understand that Vice President J.D. Vance, who  visited Armenia, has now faded into the background amid domestic  political infighting. He's trying to keep a low profile while the  conflict with Iran continues, so as not to be associated with the  problems facing the Americans. I suspect that even if someone becomes  responsible for Transcaucasia, it won't be a priority for the US,"  the political scientist explained.

Dudakov suggested that while the US president might periodically  mention, for example, the Trump Route for International Peace and  Prosperity (TRIPP), his focus will constantly shift, for example,  between Armenia and Azerbaijan, Greenland, and Iran.  "Therefore, I  think that, given the number of problems he's facing in other areas,  he'll be spending less and less time on this issue. Furthermore,  there are no serious appointments at the State Department level for  people who could work consistently on the Transcaucasus region, so  I'm not sure it's feasible," the expert believes. However, he noted  that, unlike the Americans, the Europeans won't forget about the  Transcaucasus region, recalling that the British are actively working  in Azerbaijan, and the French have tried to be proactive in Armenia.  "Here, I think, connections have been established, and the work will  continue."

They will exploit any failures Trump may have to fill the vacuum left  by the Americans.  This applies to the Middle East, the Caucasus, and  Central Asia. Of course, the crisis has also hit them hard, but it's  clear that Trump's pressure on Europe will wane. As long as he  remains in this situation, he will continue to be blackmailed, which  is precisely what the Europeans are doing. And that's exactly it.  "The worse things are for Trump, the easier it will be for Europeans  to act without regard for Washington," the expert concluded.

As a reminder, on the morning of February 28, the US and Israel  attacked Iran. In response, Iran launched strikes against US bases in  the Middle East. As a result of the US-Israeli aggression, Iran's  Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and several high-ranking Iranian military  officials were killed. On March 8, the Iranian Council of Experts  elected Ayatollah Seyyed Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of the late  Ayatollah Ali Seyyed Khamenei, as the new Supreme Leader of the  Islamic Republic of Iran. Earlier, Tehran also confirmed the  assassination of Iranian National Security Council Secretary Ali  Larijani by the US-Israeli tandem.