Analyst on Middle East developments: US plans to stir up global  markets to regain its status as  global hegemon

ArmInfo.The US is losing its leading economic position on the international stage, and the Trump administration is attempting to regain its dominant position on the global economic map through aggression in the Middle East. 

Alexander Kozlov, analyst and PhD in Economics, made this statement  during a Minsk-Yerevan video conference  "Will Trump Succeed in  Drawing Turkey into a Conflict with Iran?" when discussing the  economic situation that has developed amid the Middle East conflict.

He noted that it is unclear how much longer the US can maintain its  status as a leading economic power, especially given that China is  "nipping at its heels." In this context, he noted that many countries  have recently begun conducting transactions in national currencies,  gradually abandoning dollar transactions.  This has meant that  America is no longer perceived as the world's "policeman."

"In this context, US President Donald Trump's rhetoric demonstrates  that they don't intend to stand on ceremony with anyone. And to  restore their leadership, they need to stir up the markets, which is  exactly what they're doing. The dollar was the world's primary  trading currency. How can they regain its status?  Through oil, since  it accounts for 10% of global transactions. If settlements are in  dollars, this will provide powerful support for this currency and  ensure US economic hegemony," the analyst explained.

Kozlov noted that, having gained access to Venezuela's largest oil  reserves-305 billion barrels-the US is pursuing its goal of  dominating the oil market. "Ultimately, they want to widen the gap  between the US and Chinese economies. Although China has already  overtaken the US in purchasing power parity, in absolute terms, the  United States still holds first place. In the next two to three  years, we will see the economic development gap between the US and  China widen in favor of the US. This is the US's main goal today.   And what's happening in the Middle East is just the beginning,"  Kozlov asserts.

Speaking about the impact of the current situation on the economies  of other countries, the analyst noted that European economic  indicators remain below the global average. He emphasized that even  if things develop normally, Europe will lag behind the economies of  China and the United States. "Even if Europe has any chances today,  it will still have to completely rethink its partnerships and rid  itself of a dependency that is not serving it. Today, Europe  resembles the 'swan, the crayfish, and the pike': it wants to live as  before, but is doing nothing to achieve it. This is impossible.  Europe needs to bring order to its economy and its thinking,  otherwise, nothing will work," the analyst believes.

According to Kozlov, in the current situation, the European economy  is not benefiting from this situation and is in a state of technical  survival.

Regarding Russia's role, he noted that many perceive high gas and oil  prices as "manna from heaven" for Moscow and other exporters.  However, according to Kozlov, this is a profound misconception, as  price transmission mechanisms can directly or indirectly influence  inflation. "For our countries, rising energy prices are less  attractive than stable prices. Looking at the EAEU's consumer price  index, we're approaching 9-10%, which is problematic. Higher oil  prices will only exacerbate inflation," the analyst explained.

He also pointed to the dual impact of high oil prices on the Russian  economy: on  one hand, they support the Russian budget, but on the  other, they lead to higher prices for goods and services. "It's not  yet clear which direction we'll take. Russia has sufficient reserves  to maintain the ruble within the planned ranges.  We must remember  that the economy is a multifactorial model. It's possible that the  ruble will weaken against the dollar to last year's levels-90-95  rubles per dollar. This could be influenced by many factors,  including the situation in the Persian Gulf," the expert noted. In  conclusion, Kozlov noted that the world will take the US government's  rhetoric more seriously, and Americans will be able to manipulate  their currency more freely. "It's convenient to hand out cheap  dollars and collect expensive ones. The time is not far off when  Americans will start collecting debts in dollars," the expert  concluded.

Recall that on March 5, 2026, International Monetary Fund (IMF)  Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva stated that the global economy  is once again being tested by a new conflict in the Middle East.  According to her, if it proves more protracted, it has the obvious  potential to impact global energy prices, market sentiment, growth,  and inflation, placing new demands on policymakers. Moreover,  according to her, new shocks of varying forms and scales will  continue.