If Azerbaijan openly takes action against Iran, Tehran could create  serious problems within Azerbaijan - expert

ArmInfo. Will Azerbaijan join the war against Iran? Political scientist Suren Surenyants posed this  question on his Facebook page.

According to him, the dramatic events of recent days have once again  intensified discussions about the possibility of Azerbaijan's  participation in a military or political campaign against Iran. While  such a scenario is theoretically possible, its likelihood under  current conditions is low.

"Azerbaijan's foreign policy over the past two decades has been  largely based on cold calculation and pragmatism. Baku typically  avoids direct involvement in major wars unless their outcome is  predetermined.  This political behavior developed especially at a  time when Azerbaijan sought to minimize military and political risks  and maximize the benefits of great power confrontation. Based on this  logic, open military involvement against Iran would be an extremely  dangerous step for Baku as long as Iran maintains stable governance  and is able to withstand external pressure," the political scientist  notes.

He added that Iran is one of the most powerful states in the region,  both in terms of military and geopolitical potential. If Azerbaijan  openly takes action against Iran, Tehran could respond not only  militarily but also politically and through hybrid means, creating  serious problems within Azerbaijan and along its borders. "Another  important factor is the multi-million-strong Azerbaijani community  living inside Iran. Although some circles in Baku sometimes view this  factor as a potential lever of influence, in reality, it could have  the opposite effect. In the event of an open military conflict, Iran  could firmly control these regions and completely block all channels  through which Azerbaijan could exert any influence there.  In this  case, short-term military calculations could result in long-term  strategic losses," Suren Surenyants believes.

According to the political scientist, Turkey's position will also  have a significant impact on Azerbaijan's possible decision. Ankara  and Tehran, although competitors for regional influence, are also  important elements in the balance of power in the Middle East. The  potential collapse of Iran could trigger events that are not in  Turkey's interests, specifically the strengthening of the Kurdish  factor and a significant increase in Israeli influence in the region.  Therefore, Ankara is unlikely to support a scenario that leads to the  complete destabilization of Iran.

"Without explicit political support from Turkey, Azerbaijan is  unlikely to resort to overt military intervention against Iran. At  the same time, Azerbaijan's close relations with Israel should be  taken into account. In recent years, Baku has become one of Israel's  important partners, particularly in the security and energy sectors.  This cooperation may lead to certain practical forms in operations  against Iran, but this does not yet mean that Azerbaijan is ready for  direct military involvement. Limited and indirect support at the  intelligence or infrastructure level is more likely," Suren  Surenyants concluded.