Lack of institutional guarantees in conflict areas leads to  prevalence of right to use force - diplomat 

ArmInfo.The history of international relations shows that in conflict zones where institutional guarantees are absent, the right to use force ultimately prevails.

This was stated by former Armenian Foreign Minister and founding member of the Pan-Armenian Council of  Diplomats, Ara Ayvazyan, while presenting the "Guaranteed Peace" concept of Prosperous Armenia Party leader Gagik Tsarukyan.

According to a Facebook post by the "Armenia's Proposal" program,  Ayvazyan stated that the discussions surrounding this concept have  demonstrated the sensitivity and importance of institutional security  guarantees for Armenia. Ayvazyan believes that rejecting it based on  populist considerations and terminology and subordinating it to  partisan and electoral interests is a misunderstanding of the  situation in Armenia. "Furthermore, this means failing to see what  may be Armenia's only way out of the current tensions. 'Guaranteed  peace' is not based on the goodwill of the parties. It stems from the  realistic logic of international politics. Sustainable peace is only  possible with mechanisms for its enforcement and a system of  accountability for its violation," the diplomat noted.

The former Armenian Foreign Minister explained that the issue is  about establishing pragmatic relations with those international  players interested in restoring regional balance and whose strategic  interests align with preserving Armenia's sovereignty and territorial  integrity. He also noted that, in response to Tsarukyan's "Guaranteed  Peace" concept, Armenian authorities have begun circulating the  argument that Armenia's security guarantees already existed, but  simply failed at the crucial moment. In this regard, the diplomat  noted, there are claims that Armenia itself should become the  guarantor of the "guaranteed peace." However, Ayvazyan believes that  this argument contains a fundamental logical flaw.

"If existing security mechanisms are insufficient or ineffective,  this does not mean they should be abandoned. Rather, they need to be  reviewed and institutionalized. Rejecting guarantees not only fails  to solve the problem but directly deepens strategic vulnerability. A  state experiencing military and demographic imbalances with its  neighbors cannot be a guarantor of peace on its own. There are  virtually no such precedents in international politics. In the  absence of external commitments, accountability mechanisms, and  international oversight, any 'peace' becomes merely a temporary pause  between crises," the diplomat noted.

Ayvazyan identified a monitoring and guarantee mandate, which can be  established both bilaterally and multilaterally, as an important  component of this system. However, he emphasized that its  effectiveness depends not only on legal formulations but also on the  political will of the guarantor states and the alignment of their  strategic interests with Armenia's fundamental interests. "This is  precisely why the concept implies a rethinking of allied relations  from declarative commitments to instruments of measurable, formalized  responsibility and practical support. Peace cannot be maintained  without an accountability mechanism in the event of a violation.  Therefore, a peace treaty must include automatic political and  economic consequences, a mandatory procedure for international  investigation of violations, and pre- agreed response measures.  Without such provisions, any agreement remains vulnerable," the  former Armenian Foreign Minister asserted.

He recalled that this aspect is always important in strategic policy,  and the lack of institutional security guarantees has already led to  serious consequences for Armenia. "The concept of 'Guaranteed Peace'  has nothing to do with Armenia's external dependence. Its entire  purpose is to restore the country's strategic significance and  subjectivity. The history of international relations clearly shows  that where institutional guarantees are absent, the right to use  force ultimately prevails. If there is no peacekeeping mechanism, a  situation of imposed peace is created, where the winner dictates its  terms to the loser. The alternative to guaranteed peace is controlled  instability. Finally, today Armenia faces a fundamental choice:  either institutionalize the country's security through international  guarantees and accountability mechanisms, or our state continues to  live within the logic of coercive pressure. There is simply no third  option in international politics. Otherwise, our state will continue  to live within the logic of violent oppression," the former Armenian  Foreign Minister concluded.

As a reminder, on February 10, 2026, businessman and Prosperous  Armenia Party leader Gagik Tsarukyan announced that he would  participate in the parliamentary elections scheduled for June 7,  2026, with his "Armenia's Proposal" program-a non-partisan initiative  within the framework of which he intends to lead the country out of  the current situation and move toward post-war recovery.