Politician: Nuclear shield only deterrent in international relations  today

ArmInfo. The only practical deterrent in international relations is the possession of nuclear weapons by countries. This opinion was expressed on his Facebook page by political scientist Suren Surenyants, leader of the Democratic Alternative party, in response to recent events surrounding Iran.

The political scientist recalled that Iran's Supreme Leader,  Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed in a US- Israeli strike, and two  months earlier, the United States carried out an operation and  kidnapped Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. According to  Surenyants, these events indicate that international relations have  entered a phase of systemic disintegration.

"Actions against the highest leaders of sovereign states, carried out  without a UN mandate or any universal procedure of international law,  are no longer perceived as extreme exceptions. They are gradually  becoming a political tool within the logic of the open and vulgar use  of force. This reality demonstrates that international law and the  bodies designed to guarantee its observance have effectively ceased  to function as real mechanisms of deterrence," the politician noted.

He noted that today the UN, international courts, and multilateral  institutions limit themselves to mere statements that are incapable  of entailing binding consequences. Thus, according to Sureniants, the  law remains formal, while the use of force becomes part of practical  policy, and actions against heads of state elevate conflicts to a  qualitatively new level.

"This is no longer a question of physically or politically  neutralizing the power of a sovereign state. When such actions are  not accompanied by an adequate international response, it is  tantamount to legitimizing the incident. Under these conditions, a  bitter but obvious reality has emerged: the presence of nuclear  weapons has become the only practical deterrent in international  relations," the party leader believes.

Sureniants noted that today, states with nuclear potential enjoy a  certain degree of de facto immunity, regardless of their political  behavior. He cited the policy of the US President Donald Trump  administration as an example, noting that despite its harsh rhetoric,  Washington avoids direct military confrontation with North Korea,  recognizing the consequences of nuclear escalation.

The politician explained that, by the same logic, the United States  is forced to negotiate with Russia and China as strategic equal  partners, as these countries are nuclear superpowers. "Thus, a world  order is being formed in which states are effectively divided into  two groups: those with a nuclear shield and those without. The  sovereignty of the latter becomes relative, and their security  conditional," the party leader noted.

Sureniants believes that this process is most dangerous for small and  medium-sized states, as countries whose security was built on legal  mechanisms, mediation, and the multilateral system find themselves in  a vulnerable position.

"Under these conditions, rules don't apply; the balance of power  determines state security, and sovereignty depends on the political  calculations of external players. When the only real 'red line' is  nuclear weapons, a dangerous status quo is established in the world,  where peace is maintained not by rules, but by mutual fear. At the  same time, such a situation could serve as an incentive for nuclear  proliferation. If the only 'red line' is nuclear weapons, many states  may conclude that they should develop them; for example, Saudi  Arabia, Turkey, or Egypt may accelerate their programs. This will  lead to further escalation and instability," the political scientist  concluded.

On February 28, the United States and Israel launched an attack  against Iran. This was the largest aggression in decades, resulting  in the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. In retaliation,  Iran struck American bases in Arab countries: the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait,  Jordan, Bahrain, Oman, Iraq, and Syria.  It also struck a British  base in Cyprus and oil installations in Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia  announced it was joining the US-Israeli campaign against Iran.

Trump stated that the operation, which is expected to last several  weeks, is aimed at: depriving Iran of the ability to develop nuclear  weapons; curbing its missile program; and eliminating threats to the  United States and its allies. He also called on Iranians to rise up  and overthrow the government. Democrats accused Trump of a "war of  choice" and questioned his arguments for ending peace talks, which  the Omani mediator believed still had a chance of success.

Trump claimed that Iran would soon be able to attack the United  States with ballistic missiles, although sources say his claims are  not supported by intelligence and appear exaggerated. According to US  Central Command, the first American casualties were recorded on  Sunday: three US service members were killed, five were seriously  wounded, and several suffered minor shrapnel wounds and concussions.  Today, it was reported that Iran shot down an American fighter jet  over Kuwait.

Notably, the Pentagon acknowledged during a congressional briefing  that they had no intelligence about Iran's intention to commit  aggression against the United States. Today, Iranian Supreme National  Security Council Secretary Ali Larijani announced that Iran is  refusing to negotiate with the United States.

It is noteworthy that before the escalation of the conflict, Iran and  the United States were negotiating the Iranian nuclear dossier, with  Oman acting as a mediator.