Trump faces two strategic challenges before resuming military action against Iran - expert

ArmInfo. US President Donald Trump is ready to strike Iran at any time, but he is trying to buy time to address two strategic objectives, according to Americanist Suren Sargsyan.

In his Facebook post, Sargsyan, speaking about the likelihood of a resumption of military action against Iran in the near future, noted that the US armed forces have been put on 100 percent combat readiness, but the final decision rests with Trump, who is currently hesitating.

Speaking about the reasons for this hesitation, Sargsyan explained that the first is the need to build the necessary public perception and support that will allow the US president to resort to exclusively military means.

"Trump must demonstrate that all avenues for negotiations have been exhausted and that further negotiations are impossible, and also advance the thesis that Iran is too close to acquiring nuclear weapons," the Americanist explained. The second important consideration, according to the expert, stems from the need to mitigate domestic risks. As Sargsyan explained, if a military operation were to have serious consequences for the US military or service members, it would negatively impact Trump and the Republicans' approval ratings, potentially leading to a Republican defeat in the November elections, and the Democrats could initiate impeachment proceedings.

In this regard, he noted that there are currently three impeachment bills pending in the US House of Representatives, and if any problems arise, as happened last time (on October 31, 2019, the US House of Representatives passed a resolution formally initiating impeachment proceedings against President Trump - ed.), some Republicans may again support this initiative.

"During his previous presidency, Democrats initiated the impeachment process, generated strong public pressure on Republicans, and launched an active political and media campaign to keep the process on the public agenda, resulting in about a dozen Republicans joining the impeachment effort. Therefore, Trump's team still has much to calculate and consider, but the likelihood of a military conflict remains very high," Sargsyan concluded.

As a reminder, the second round of US-Iran nuclear talks concluded in Geneva on February 18. According to media reports, in addition to nuclear issues, possible economic agreements were discussed. That same day, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced Washington's intention to attempt to resolve differences with Tehran through diplomatic means.