No preconditions for end of war in Ukraine - RA FIS

ArmInfo. The Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) of Armenia sees no preconditions for ending the war around Ukraine and, as such, is warning of risks for the Armenian economy.

"Based on a comprehensive analysis of the balance of forces on the  battlefield, the political goals of the conflicting parties, and the  interests of global players, the Service assesses that a stable and  long-term settlement of the ongoing conflict between Russia and  Ukraine in 2026 is unlikely.

Despite the current intensity of the negotiation process, it is  likely that throughout 2026, the parties will maintain mutually  exclusive goals and diametrically opposed positions on a number of  issues that each side considers vital, which, in turn, will preserve  the foundations for a military manifestation of the conflict," states  the 2026 Annual Report on External Risks of the Republic, published  by the Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) of Armenia.

It adds that Ukraine will likely retain the ability to militarily  resist Russia's actions through 2026. "At the same time, Russia has a  significant advantage in the medium term in terms of the potential  for successful continuation of military operations. Another important  task for Ukraine is ensuring domestic stability. In the context of a  grueling war, objectively accumulated domestic political  contradictions, and active geopolitical pressure, even talk of  elections carries a high risk of unpredictable consequences.  Nevertheless, it is likely that at least a significant portion of the  sanctions imposed against Russia will remain in place, which will  continue to pose risks to the Armenian economy, including in terms of  secondary economic sanctions," the report states.

At the same time, the Armenian Foreign Intelligence Service believes  that ongoing polarization between individual geopolitical centers  will likely exacerbate existing risks to the balance of Armenia's  foreign policy and economic relations.