Armenian-Azerbaijani normalization is mere "imitation" - political  scientist

ArmInfo.Imitating peace, especially in conditions of power and political imbalance, not only fails to reduce existing risks but may actually exacerbate them  in the long term, as noted by political scientist Suren Surenyants in a post on his Facebook page.

According to him, the gratitude expressed by Armenian Prime Minister  Nikol Pashinyan to Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev during the  meeting of EAEU leaders for lifting the blockade on the transit of  goods through Azerbaijan to Armenia and creating conditions for the  start of bilateral trade could be perceived by outside observers as a  signal of easing regional tensions. However,  the political scientist  believes that an in-depth political analysis shows that such an  interpretation is not only premature, but also does not fully  correspond to the logic of real processes.

"Armenian-Azerbaijani relations continue to be at the stage of  structural contradictions. There is no peace treaty; instead, Baku  consistently puts forward both new and previously formulated  preconditions.  Azerbaijan puts forward preconditions, for example,  amendments to the Armenian constitution, which complicates the  process. The de facto occupation of part of Armenian territories  continues, and in Baku, maximum prison terms, including life  imprisonment, are applied to Armenian prisoners of war. Against this  background, individual economic steps cannot be considered as  components of an institutional peace process. The import of 22 train  cars of Azerbaijani gasoline to Armenia, regardless of the  information noise generated around it, has no systemic significance  from an economic point of view. It does not change the structure of  Armenia's energy market, does not reduce external dependence, and  does not create long-term predictability. Therefore, we are not  talking about economic policy, but about political symbolism. When  there is no reciprocity on fundamental issues: security, territorial  integrity, the return of prisoners of war, any unilateral "gesture of  goodwill" turns into a violation of political balance. It strengthens  the position of the side retaining the instruments of pressure, while  weakening the side attempting to present the process as progress,"  Surenyants noted.

The political scientist pointed out that in this context, the import  of 22 railcars of gasoline into Armenia is perceived ambiguously.  Public perception sees it primarily as a move serving domestic  political goals, demonstrating the effectiveness of the government's  "peace agenda" during the pre-election period. This is especially  evident in the absence of institutional foundations for peace and the  unresolved key components of the conflict.  "Peace requires clear  political agreements, legal obligations, and mutual responsibility.  Without these components, any 'unblocking' or 'resumption of trade'  remains fragile, easily reversible, and susceptible to short-term  political speculation. In this situation, we are not talking about  institutional peace, but about its imitation," the political  scientist noted.