Military expert: The duration of military service in the Armenian  army should be determined by assessing the risks of potential enemy  aggression

ArmInfo.  The duration of military service should be determined by assessing the risks of potential enemy aggression and the need to defend the state now and in the near future. Military expert Hayk Nahapetyan expressed this  opinion in an interview with an ArmInfo correspondent, commenting on  Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's announcement to reduce the duration  of mandatory military service in Armenia from 24 to 18 months  starting next year.

According to the expert, the size of the army is determined based on  the challenges facing the country, whether from neighboring or  distant countries, and also to neutralize threats if necessary. In  other words, as Nahapetyan clarified, the size of the army is not a  voluntary decision. To illustrate this, the expert cited the  situation in Israel in 1948 as an example. "At that time, Israel,  with a small population, was blockaded by Arab states, which had  begun military operations. To effectively counter the enemy, Israel's  military leadership began conscripting men for eight years and women  for six. That is, the length of military service was determined based  on the challenges facing the state and the need to counter any  potential aggression," Nahapetyan stated.

The expert pointed out that currently, Armenia and Azerbaijan are in  a state of undeclared war, as the two countries legislative bodies   have not ratified any legal act confirming the declaration of peace  between the states. "Azerbaijan is increasing military spending on  offensive weapons. For example, a few days ago, they purchased  fourth-generation fighter jets from Pakistan, which have already  proven their effectiveness in combat situations in India and  Afghanistan," the expert emphasized.

He also mentioned that military exercises involving tank forces from   Turkey, Georgia, and Azerbaijan had taken place just days before.  "Additionally, Azerbaijan has increased its military personnel,  currently totaling 100,000. And within 72 hours, they can replenish  their reserve military units, to which approximately 80,000  reservists are assigned, with approximately the same number of  conscripts. In other words, Azerbaijan, despite having a significant  military reserve, continues to utilize conscription for their reserve  units," Nahapetyan noted.

Meanwhile, the expert recalled that not only is the length of  military service being shortened in Armenia, but the size of the army  and its military expenditures in the state budget, are also being  reduced. Addressing the authorities' statements about replacing them  with contract soldiers, he recalled that their conscription began  in  the 1990s due to a shortage of conscripts.

"Back then, conscription for combat service was carried out among war  veterans or citizens with military experience and adequate health.  However, it must be understood that for contract military personnel,  this is not service, but work. Therefore such service members should  at least be provided with a social package.  Meanwhile, the current  government has not said a word about this," the expert noted.

He expressed confidence that such an attitude will lead to a  reduction in the number of contract soldiers. In other words, as  Nahapetyan noted, the Armenian authorities have not only shortened  the duration of military service but have also taken no steps to  increase the number of contract soldiers. "Ultimately, as a result, a  point will come when the Armenian army's military personnel will be  significantly fewer than Azerbaijan's. And without a signed peace  treaty, Azerbaijan's  threat of force will become more effective.   This means that Armenia will be forced to make concessions to  Azerbaijan given their military's superiority," the expert explained.

Regarding the main reason for the reduction in military service,  Nahapetyan expressed his belief that this is a pre-election move,  recalling that the decision was initially supposed to take effect in  June 2026. However, it was postponed until January 1. The expert  noted that this is precisely the period when the winter draft will  begin, and further suggested that the reduction in military service  could be extended and shortened by another six months before the June  2026 elections. "The authorities will justify this decision by citing  peace with Azerbaijan and the pointlessness of a longer term. In  other words, another reduction will be used as an election tool.  However, it must be understood that the Prime Minister's attempt to  convince everyone that a 'piece of paper' signed in Washington  guarantees peace is nothing special," the expert noted.

In support of his words, he recalled that a similar agreement,  brokered by four countries-the United States, Turkey, Qatar, and  Egypt-was signed on October 10 in Sharm el-Sheikh, establishing a  ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. "However, this was done without  the presence of the main parties to this conflict. This document  entered into force on October 13, but on October 19, Israel again  attacked civilians in the Gaza Strip, launching approximately 120  aerial bombs. This is the real price of US mediation," Nahapetyan  emphasized. In conclusion, the expert expressed his conviction that  the solution lies in an adequate assessment of the situation in  Armenia. "Today, the main issue is that many political parties and  expert circles do not share the same assessment of the situation.  That is, there is no consolidation around a single idea or a unified  position on resolving existing challenges and threats," the military  expert concluded.